The Wave on the 60 minute USD/JPY says that “yup!” the trend is transitioning to a sideways market cycle and that the channel down pattern may no longer be confirmed. Since any channel pattern is a TRENDING pattern, a sideways, three o’clock Wave just doesn’t confirm the pattern alert. However do not dismiss it right away! The downtrend line resistance of the pattern is a useful line if prices are indeed beginning to congest/consolidate on this chart. Watch this line for a potential breakout if the MACD Histogram goes above the zero line and prices pierce the resistance of the pattern. The Initial Trend reading on the Autochartist is also indicating a slowing trend and this confirms the Wave reading.
With the Dow closing up 82 points the Asian session could get a slight boost from the upward correction of Monday’s sell of however remember that an uptrend on the dollar-yen is a sign of RISK APPETITE and the after hours Dow futures are down slightly at -15. The market is poised for a breakout/breakdown as traders decide whether they want to continue to buy into the Summer rally or take profits as September approaches. The momentum set up on the 60 is a perfect look at that indecision.
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