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Inside technicals and chart patterns by Raghee Horner, trader/author at Ragheehorner.com, Chief Currency Analyst at InterbankFX, and Autochartist Chief Market Analyst.

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Dissecting the range within the USD/JPY congestion

Posted on November 4, 2009 at 23:43 in Chart patterns, Price actions by Raghee Horner

The dollar-yen is bouncing around within a wide range as the Continuation Ascending Triangle has not yet reached the “narrows” of the pattern.

The “narrows” of a pattern occur when you have a self-limiting pattern like a triangle or wedge where the pattern’s range steadily decreases until there’s no room left for prices to move and the pattern is broken.

The range has three major psychological levels within it.  The 92.00, 91.00, and the 90.00.  Finding where prices may bounce while within the triangle pattern can offer some insight into where and which way the pattern may eventually break - or - whether it may break at all.

The “C” level sits at 91.05 while the “A” is at 91.62.  Notice that USD/JPY has made a full 100% retracement back to “C”.

If prices are sent down lower from the 1.000 level, the eventual downside target which would complete the AB=CD pattern would be at 88.65.  This low would also trigger the triangle breakdown through the uptrend line support currently near 89.20.  With an ABCD pattern where “A” and “C” are the high points, the entry would be to buy “D” when prices reach that low.  This would also make “D” a potential downside profit target for the triangle breakdown.

Both charts were created using Autochartist Chart and Fibonacci Pattern recognition software.

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