Howdy Traders!

GBP/USD is struggling to move beyond resistance that has formed along $1.52. The currency pair has not posted a higher price than the $1.5228 high set prior to Monday’s bargain day. On the four hour chart a triple top is potentially forming while GBP continues to chip away at $1.52. It looks like it’s decision time for the GBP/USD. The HMA trend indicator I use to find bargain day setups is starting to rollover. It appears ready to turn bearish should a break above $1.52 fail to materialize tomorrow. There is also some trend line resistance on the daily chart to hold the pair down. However if a break above $1.52 does occur, it looks like the triple top may provide a nice support floor for any pull backs to test $1.52. Here is today’s chart:

Best of luck!
Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks,
If you missed the webinar this morning, don’t worry you are not alone. There was some scheduling confusion, and it was canceled by mistake. I’m working with FX Street to see if there is a time slot on Friday I can fill If we get it worked out I will post a new registration link on the blog this week.

GBP/USD moved lower Monday, putting price action into what I like to call bargain territory. It’s tough coming out of a holiday weekend to get a good feel on price action, but there are some support areas of interest. The GBP/USD four hour chart has built in an ascending channel, and the round number of $1.50 is of interest.  I think if GBP/USD is interested in moving higher, a test of $1.50 and the channel is likely, and that would give us something to work on the long side. The $1.50 handle fell following last week’s brilliant bargain day setup, and might provide support again during trading this week. Below are today’s charts:

Best of luck,

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy folks,

We had a great webinar today, I hope you were able to attend. Although next week is the 4th of July holiday weekend in the United States, I will be holding a webinar on Monday the 5th. I hope you can attend, I’ll post the registration link on Friday.

GBP/USD moved higher again today. There was a brilliant bargain day setup we talked about in today’s webinar last week, but right now the pair isn’t offering much. While the currency pair is moving higher on the daily chart, it is approaching a weekly supply level. There is also a descending trend line that may cap GBP’s advance. Personally, I’m waiting for something better to emerge on this pair.

Howdy Traders!

If you would like to join us for this week’s webinar, please register at the following URL:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=6e9e9ac6-276f-40b7-8244-f53997645b7f

As usual, we will discuss trading along support and resistance while working a day job. There are routinely a lot of questions around marking support and resistance; so today I’m going to spend more time on identifying specific support and resistance levels. The webinar starts at 1pm Pacific, and I hope you can join us.

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

Unfortunately I have a schedule conflict tomorrow, and will be unable to present our weekly Monday webinar. I’ll talk with FX Street about rescheduling it, perhaps on Friday. I apologize for any inconvenience! Best of luck this week!

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

I hope you had a nice weekend, and are looking forward to trading this week! GBP/USD topped out about 40 pips shy of my target resistance of $1.48 last week before selling off again. Today the currency pairs opens down again, looking to challenge the support lows from the last couple of weeks. The closest major round number price barriers are $1.50 and $1.40, placing GBP/USD currently in the middle of that range. Potentially significant demand is marked in the shaded area which corresponds to the most recent monthly chart lows.

Depending on sentiment this week $1.43 may be of interest again, but we’ll have to wait and see. On the weekly chart, this pair looks headed to $1.40. This brings up the issue of the bargain day setup due to Friday’s close. In these cases, I prefer to let Monday’s price action shake out a direction before committing to a bargain day.

Best of luck,

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks,

When you trade with entry orders, along support or resistance barriers you are going to have times where being cheap ends up missing a trade. We talk about these when they occur in the Monday webinar, but I thought I’d point one out from last night. USD/SGD formed a decent bargain day, and I liked the supply shown around $1.42. Using the four hour chart I dropped an entry order to sell USD/SGD at $1.4160 last night. I was hoping the market would test supply one last time near the London open, and pick up my sell. Unfortunately that never happened, and I was left in the dust. It’s frustrating, but I placed the order at $1.4160 because I wanted to ensure a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3. I had targeted 32.8% replacement on the daily chart so I was only planning to be in this trade for 180 pips, and it required about 60 pips of risk. Even though the trade wasn’t filled, I thought it might be a decent example of the trade planning we routinely talk about in Monday’s webinar. I’d rather be in a trade with the numbers on my side, than take on excessive risk. Hopefully one of you bargain day hunters caught the move with a smaller stop above the high of the bargain day, it was a nice sell off.

GBP/USD took a pause today, closing exactly where it opened on my daily candle. I still think a test of $1.48 is possible. Maybe we will see a bargain day ahead of Friday, and the NFP data.

Best of luck,

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

Cable held up pretty good today, unfortunately it left me the dust. As I wrote on Sunday, I wasn’t confident it was time to go long since I was looking for a bargain hunting close below the HMA. On the heals of good fundamental data it would have been slick to buy into some selling on a bargain day formation, but for now the currency pair has left me sidelined. I think GBP/USD is headed to test broken weekly support around $1.48. If the pair forms a bargain day on breakout support shown in the chart, there may be an opportunity to trade it back up to that broken support level. It’s touchy right now for daily chart traders; folks still seem to be fretting Greece, and selling may return. $1.48 / $1.49 could be a quick event if the sellers emerge with some conviction again.

If your session trading, I hope you caught the ride up from $1.4450.

Best of luck,

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

I apologize for the lack of posts on this blog! I’ve been incredibly busy the last two months, and I appreciate your patience! I’ve been traveling a lot, and will be moving across the country in a few months so I’ve been quite distracted. Fortunately my schedule seems to be settling now. and I’m looking forward to writing more on this blog! There have been many fantastic bargain day opportunities over the last several weeks, and I hope to blog more of them as they arrive. We have discussed many of them in the Monday webinar, and I encourage you to join us tomorrow if you have time. You can register at this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=55867844-3385-4f78-8d57-63618032f220

I hope to see you there!

Sunday Planning

I always like to spend time on Sunday planning trade ideas ahead of the market open. This exercise gets me prepared for the trading week, and reminds me where major price action boundaries exist so hopefully I won’t miss one during trade planning. Sunday planning is really quite simple for me. I mark the previous week’s high, and low trading zones, along with the major “000″ numbers that may be in play during the trading week. I usually start with a monthly or weekly chart, then move daily and four hour. Since I usually focus on GBP/USD with this blog, that currency pair is the subject of today’s post.

The last few weeks have not been kind to the Pound. The weekly chart makes it clear any hope GBP bulls had to establish trend line support at $1.500 has been smashed. The currency pair looks poised to make a run at $1.40 but there may be potential for a pull back if risk eases, and sellers dry up this week. GBP/USD broke the highs set two weeks ago, and made a higher low last week by holding support between $1.43 and $1.42. The trend indicator I like to use (HMA) has a long bias, but the currency pair is still trading sideways in my opinion. On the 4 hour chart the range is getting wider, and managed to break above the weekly high set two weeks ago. Using my simply weekly high / weekly low trading zones, $1.46 on the short side, and $1.43 on the long side are areas of interest. It appears a break down to test $1.43 would probably create a bargain day setup, but I’m not convinced it is time to go long yet. Tomorrow the United States is celebrating Memorial Day, and the U.S. markets will be closed. Tomorrow is also a bank holiday in Great Britain, so I do not expect much to look at until Tuesday evening on this pair. Non-Farm Payroll numbers are due out on Friday, GBP has housing, construction and manufacturing data throughout the week.

I’ll be back tomorrow evening, perhaps a bargain day setup will appear.

Best of luck this week!

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks,

Register to join me on Monday for my weekly price action trading webinar here at FXStreet.com! Each week we talk about a simple price action based trading strategy, look at actual trades, and go over the mechanics of trading price action without depending on indicators. These webinars are a lot of fun, and I hope you can join us! Register at this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=6dc1885a-80de-4062-a998-901b3d7847be

Have a great weekend!