Howdy Folks!

After an amazing week of trading, the pickings are slim for bargain hunters this Monday evening. All the major currencies seem to be over extended, and need some time to reset. There isn’t much on the fundamental calendar this week either, U.S. retail sales and Australian employment data are probably the two most interesting. For now, I wait.

FX Street’s Monthly Webinar

I’m pleased to tell you FX Street has invited me to be their speaker for February’s Monthly Webinar! On Thursday, February 18th I will host a three hour webinar series. The first hour and a half is open to all members, the second is open to premium members only. In this series we are going to dive into trading support and resistance, whether you work full time or not. It will be a lot of fun, and I hope you can join us. You can register via this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contributors/authors/author.aspx?id=d038028c-6ad5-494d-b493-e4246df81941

Well, Sunday I was looking for a long AUD/USD opportunity ahead of the anticipated rate hike from the RBA. I got the long at $0.8790 and took profit ahead of the rate statement, and I was glad I did. Thanks to a surprise rate decision by the RBA the fundamental picture has shifted a bit in the last twenty four hours. This leads us to the chart of the day, AUD/JPY. The weekly chart is smack up against a rising trend line, horizontal support, and the round number $80.00. All of these could be good signals for AUD bulls, but the surprise rate hold may accelerate the AUD sell off. If $80 falls, the next major support appears to be near $77.00 which would single a rather significant trend line break on the daily chart in my opinion.

Australia will get retail sales data tomorrow evening, followed by RBA’s policy statement on Thursday evening. Perhaps strong retail data, and clear hints on the RBA’s rate intentions will provide some footing near $80. Either way, it’s today’s chart of the day.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

GBP/USD is testing an established demand level on the daily chart this morning around $1.5900. In my opinion this is an important level for the GBP, if it fails the next major support level appears to be around $1.54. Fundamentally,the GBP may get a boost this week. Manufacturing data came in slightly stronger than expected this morning. The market is awaiting housing, services PMI, and a rate statement from the BoE.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Traders,

First, my apologies for the stale blog. I have been busier than usual the last couple of weeks, and on the road visiting my old home town of Dallas / Fort Worth. Now I’m getting back into the swing of things so I hope I still have some readers out there! Tonight’s Sunday Game Plan is focused on AUD/USD. This currency has been decimated by a stiff sell off over the last few weeks, and now it is approaching what I would consider a decent demand zone. The last time AUD/USD visited the zone between $0.88 and $0.87 it launched a 500 pip rally. Tomorrow, the Royal Bank of Australia is expected to raise rates by .25 basis points which is probably priced in, but any deviation may accelerate this sell off further. If the rate is raised as expected, with the rate statement hinting to further hikes the demand level may hold. Regardless, this currency pair is definitely on my watch list.

Monday’s Webinar

Tomorrow afternoon or Tuesday morning depending on your time zone, I’ll host my weekly webinar here at FX Street. Every Monday we discuss medium and long term support and resistance trading tactics you can easily implement even if you work a day job or trading hours are inconvenient to your time zone. These sessions are a lot of fun, and I hope you can join us! Register via this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=ff40c6e6-ac9f-4a06-bd49-31b85f3e67bb

Best of luck!

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks!

We had a great webinar this afternoon, I hope you can join us next week! I’ll post the registration link for next week’s webinar on Friday. Today there isn’t much happening today in the realm of bargain hunting so today’s Chart of the Day uses a classic breakout pattern to analyze the USD/CHF 4 hour chart. Last week, USD/CHF broke out of an ascending channel and today it is testing the upper edge of that channel. If the dollar can find buyers near $1.0220, it’s next stop could be the resistance level near $1.0360. This resistance level happens to correspond with a 61.8% Fibonacci ratio from the downward move starting near $1.05.  The USD/CHF may need to test $1.02 before moving higher again, time will tell. If the dollar breaks down through the channel, the next major support level appears to be $1.000 in my opinion.

Best of luck this week, more tomorrow!

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Traders!

Every Monday afternoon / Tuesday morning I host a webinar on FXStreet focused on teaching you to trade longer time frames, around your day job. I’d like to invite you to join us by registering via this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=11bb02db-22fb-4e50-9bd5-25cba4a6fe9f

Click on the “Register for this session” link, I hope to see you there!

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

I decided to weigh in on the debate surrounding the CFTC’s proposed margin restrictions. Rather than repeat myself, I’d like to invite you to visit my blog directly at http://www.ryanokeefe.com.

Have a great weekend!

Ryan

Howdy Folks!

Every Monday we discuss a simple price action based trading methodology you can use to easily trade around your day job using daily, or weekly charts. Tonight’s webinar will be jammed packed with plenty of examples from last week!  Register at this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=fb1a6382-d134-4b30-9a75-9a3e82448e8a

I hope you can join us!

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

What a year 2009 has been! I’ve enjoyed blogging here at FX Street and meeting new traders through your comments, and my weekly webinar. I look forward to continuing our discussion of long term trading techniques in 2010!

Have a wonderful New Year’s celebration! I wish you all a healthy and prosperous 2010!

Ryan

P.S. I’m sorry Monday’s webinar was cut short, my internet provider decided to go down right in the middle of our chat! I’ll be back next week!

Howdy Folks,

The New York exchange markets open in about 30 minutes so I thought I’d kick the blog off with a post to my new category “Thoughts at the Open”. This morning we see GBP/USD enjoyed a nice run off the lows from last week and is currently challenging Friday’s high supply level between $1.6000 and $1.6025. $1.6000 is a major round number, and this supply level will be interesting to watch as we go into the open of New York trading today. I personally think GBP/USD moves higher after a bit of a pull back, but we’ll see.

Best of luck today, I’ll be back tonight with a longer term view.

Monday Webinar Reminder

Last week we had a great webinar chat, and I’m looking forward to this evenings chat. If you would like to register for my weekly webinar, please visit this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=bd5d938e-dbea-4dda-89f3-5d3e923bd7c2

I hope to see you there!

Ryan