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Sunday evening in my corner of the globe and I’m pondering mixed fundamental data out of Australia. HIA New Home Sales (MoM) delivered 8.3%, far hotter than an expected -1.7% yet Company Operating Profits fell -6.5%, far worse than an expected -1.2%. So the mixed messages from the economy down under continue.
Last week we saw unexpected growth in wages, construction work and private capital expenditures leading some to believe the Aussie economy is stronger than it looks.
This week we see more key indicators including retail sales, gross domestic product, trade balance and the RBA rate decision which is an expected cut of .25BP. Some folks think the RBA will be more aggressive and cut by .50BP which would likely weaken this pair further; particularly if risk sentiment in the U.S. begins to stink again this week.
Technically speaking, this pair is along a rising trend line and support around $0.63. Bullish data long with bullish price action may see a turn in this zone but until that outlook is confirmed this continues to be a sell the rallies scenario for me.
Best of luck,
Ryan