Howdy Folks!

Well the blog has been quiet for a bit but I’m pleased to be blogging again. I’ve been busy working on a book for Wiley & Sons but I’m back now!

I think there are some interesting technical things happening on GBP/JPY tonight. The pair is up against a descending trend line which is on it’s third touch. If you subscribe to the trend line technical theory three touches “confirm” a trend line and GBP/JPY may have a technical reason to fall.  There is also a double top that has formed along the trend line which can be seen well on the four and one hour charts.

It’s not the best supply level in my opinion but combined with the double top and trend line it may hold up for another round of selling. It will be interesting to see if the supply level around $146.50 holds up through the London open.

Best of luck,

Ryan

GBP/USD looks a little sickly to me headed into tonight’s Asian trading session. I’m not convinced the pair will hold $1.50 but I’m also not willing to step in front of this trend.

The cross pair GBP/JPY has a clearer technical picture in my opinion so I thought I’d focus on it tonight.

It appears range traders may have stepped in to short the top of a well defined GBP/JPY channel on the four hour chart. In the time it has taken me to write this post I’ve watched nearly a  100 point sell off but I’m not convinced GBP is down for the count until the demand level between $146.28 / $145.76 dries up.

Breaking above the channel could put a test of $151 in play where a sell off would test the demand level near the bottom of the channel, if there are any buyers left to be tested.

Personally I’m not keen on shorting this pair right now and although I like the support level at the bottom of this channel I’m going to sit out overnight and watch how the price action plays out. The long opportunity passed me by last night and therefore I’m sidelined with GBP for now.

Best of luck,

Ryan

I was away last week working on some other projects but I’ll be back to the blog this week. I hope you caught some of the fun today! We had some decent moves today as Dollar sold off across the board however tonight I’m not particularly thrilled with any one currency setup so I’m sidelined for now.

Thinking out loud for a moment, the USD/CAD flag / triple top pattern has broken to the downside. Using some Fibonacci ratios from the low formed way back in November of 2007 makes me wonder if this pair may be working it’s way back down to $1.15 over the long term.

Howdy Folks!

GBP/USD broke out after some back and forth action this morning giving us a nice 100+ point rally to catch. My generic technical price target for the channel break is up around $1.4635 but in my opinion today’s run is good enough a day ahead of Non Farm Payroll Friday.

Looking across the majors I see a lot of consolidation patterns building ahead of NFP Friday. USD/JPY has a nice triangle, but EUR/USD has a nice horizontal channel that built up over the last three days.

My opinion is the upside breakout may be cut off at resistance around $1.3430 which would provide a short opportunity if I can find the right entry. The pair may stay in the range tomorrow which would make a pop up to this resistance level post NFP even more interesting on the short side depending on the data.

We’ll have to wait and see, but that is the advantage of trading longer time frames, you have time to think about this stuff and let it show it’s cards to you.

Also, I wanted to say I appreciate all the comments folks have been leaving on my blog here at FX Street. I love reading your opinions and seeing all the different ways we look at the same currency pairs. I hope your enjoying the blog!

Best of luck,

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.