USD/CHF has been testing $1.080 all week and printing an inverted megaphone pattern on the four hour chart. Today’s daily candle printed what could almost be considered a bearish engulfing range but it’s not text book. I realize the candle patterns are usually used to time reversals in an uptrend but it can also have merit as a trend continuation indicator also. I’m wondering if $1.080 is going to give way tomorrow morning with the Swiss KOF data followed by the U.S. GDP numbers on the docket. I went looking on a longer term chart to see what might be holding up USD/CHF at $1.080 and this is what I found.

I have an idea how to play this but I need to wait a bit longer before I make any moves. Stay tuned and best of luck.

Ryan

Looking back on my USD/JPY thoughts I underestimated the strength Dollar would enjoy. It seems the risk appetite eased enough to send this pair much higher than I thought it would overnight. I was stopped out on my small sell position but that is fine. Sometimes you swing and you miss, it’s the nature of the business.

Back later tonight with my regular long term analysis. I hope your having a great trading week!

Dollar sentiment seems to be improving tonight against the Yen with a rally up to $96. The Dollar is challenging the lower boundaries of 19th’s Doji. Retail sales data out of Japan tonight post a better than expected -2.9% loss versus the anticipated -3.2% loss.$96.09 marks a 38.2% pull back from the down trend which broke the head and shoulders pattern on this pair. Looking at the daily and weekly time frames I still think $96 is a decent pivot back to the downside on this pair. I’m testing the waters with a small short at $95.90. I suspect if I’m wrong I’ll get stopped out by the end of New York tomorrow, guess we will see. Regardless of potential support at $94 the plan for now is still the same, targeting $92.70 or lower.

Stay tuned…

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Having missed my short orders by just a few pips overnight I’ve decided to pull the orders off the desk. USD/JPY has support on the Daily chart around $94 / $93.50 which I failed to notice last night. I’m thinking this pair may be headed a tad higher after all, perhaps the sell is closer to $96. Either way since I’m not 60 pips in the money this morning I’ve decided to sit this out for now.

Stay tuned…

Howdy folks!

So equities rally, Dollar gets beat up and USD/JPY is boring to watch as usual but it looks like the short idea I talked about yesterday may be getting closer. Tonight I’m watching the support pivot at $95.60 which gave way last week. This has been a decisive area of support on the daily chart over the last few months and now we are going to test it from below.

Now comparing that to what I see on the four hour chart, I like the idea of selling around $95.60. Ideally I can join the daily chart head and shoulder breakout at a bargain price on it’s way to a lower support level.

I’m planning a short at $95.60 but if things go horribly wrong I’ll be stopped out around $96.60. See the daily chart below for my longer term target on this trade. I’d like to see the pair fall back to support and a 61.8% pull back around $92.70. Risk to reward is just shy of 1:3.

Stay tuned….

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks!

It’s a beautiful day on the lake today! Clear skies, 70 degrees and a holiday weekend in the Seattle area, you can’t ask for much better! I hope your having a great day in your corner of the globe!

The holiday weekend in the United States has obviously dried up the market activity so today I’m just doing some week ahead planning on the majors.

USD/EUR

Fiber’s assault against the Dollar was unforgiving last week as Euro posted five straight days of gains. From a technical view the pair has moved into a weekly zone of rather messy supply and demand levels and it will be interesting to see if the rally can continue unabated this week. CCI on weekly and daily time frames are oversold but that doesn’t mean the trend is done. For now I’m sticking with the trend and planing to buy on a pullback if the right opportunity comes around this week. I think $1.42 is in the Fiber’s sights but I’d like to see a pull back and join up with some bargain hunters.

USD/JPY

Dollar sold off quite smartly following the pullback day we talked about last week. There is a lot of fundamental data on tap for Japan this week including jobless data, retail sales, consumer prices and their trade balance. If the numbers continue to suggest continued stabilization and the potential for expected growth the Yen could continue it’s assault against the Dollar. It also appears talk of intervention was a false fear last week as well.  As usual, I’m interested in selling with bargain hunters around the $95.60 level if the right opportunity comes along this week.

That’s enough shop talk for today, it is time to have some fun on the lake!

Dollar / Yen appears to have completed a pull back move on the consolidation that broke out last week. Today’s demand level ended up between $96.50 and $96.69 which may offer a nice level to short through a test of yesterday’s high.  A short would have to be protected above $96.80 as the pattern breaks down with a close back inside the triangle. $96.00 seems to be holding as a pivot level for now.

So yesterday’s guess Dollar / Yen would continue to fall was correct. The sell off unfortunately happened early leaving my orders in the dust. I was looking for a test of Wednesday’s demand level high before a fall, oh well.

That’s all for this week, I’ll be back on Sunday looking for some gap opportunities to trade!

Best of luck,

Ryan

Dollar / Yen finally broke through daily chart consolidation with some gusto yesterday which brings into play previous support between $96 and $96.50. If these previous support zones provide resistance the pair may give us some selling opportunities into our new found daily chart down trend.

Using some simple Fibonacci it appears the next support targets with price action confirmation could be $94.27 (50%) followed by $92.50 (61.8%).

Best of luck,

Ryan

Just a few posts ago I wondered whether or not USD/CAD would make it down to $1.15 and low and behold, the pair turned right around on the $1.15 mark.

“Is USD/CAD Headed For $1.15?”

Now I’m pondering how far the pair may pull back before this daily chart trend continues. Thinking out loud for a moment I’m going to keep my eye on the $1.20 handle which is right above a 61.8% pull back and corresponds with broken support back on 4/30.

I think it’d be slick to get a bearish reversal day somewhere in that zone.

What do you think about this pair?

Trading Sunday Gaps

After Friday’s huge Dollar fire sale I went looking for some gap trade opportunities Sunday night. Trading gaps on Sunday can be a great strategy for folks who work a day job. They seem to appear frequently now with the market’s added volitilty, that may not last but it is fun for now. This wasn’t the cleanest trade I’ve ever done but I managed to book a few points off USD/CHF.

If you haven’t seen Sam Seiden’s presentation on gap trading I’d recommend taking a look, he has some great points.

You can check out Sam’s presentation here:

http://transcripts.fxstreet.com/2009/02/professional-gaps-vs-novice-gaps-in-the-forex-markets.html

No daily chart trades to talk about today. I’ll let the week progress and see what we can come up with.

Best of luck,

Ryan