Howdy Folks,

I’m very excited to invite you to my first webinar here at FX Street. This presentation is focused on techniques you can use to trade longer time frames, around your day job, regardless of how large or small your trading capital is. You can register for this event via this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=5b280380-3580-488e-9364-3556b06eb988

I hope to see you there!

I’ve been traveling the last few days so no blog updates until I return next week. I hope your having a great week!

Ryan

Dollar has enjoyed a nice rally this morning against CAD off the breakout level of of $1.1250 from a few days ago but the supply pivot between $1.1330 and $1.3750 seems to be holding the pair down for now. I’m wondering if we see a lower Dollar from here, at least temporarily. There are a couple of things that could be setting up here. First we may be starting a new channel between $1.1370ish and the low of $1.080. Second we could see the momentary pull back to $1.1150ish which would be a nice Fibonacci play from the $1.080 rally or third, we could see a breakout above $1.1370 which could setup a nice long opportunity when $1.1370 is tested from above. There is still room for this pair to rally to $1.1450 on the weekly chart.

Best of luck,

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks!

Just doing a round of trade planning this evening ahead of the trading week, I hope you had a fantastic weekend!  Looking at the EUR/USD this evening the pair seems technically confused. On the weekly chart we see the pair moving into the upper bollinger bands as if it would like to break higher and continue this trend but on the daily chart a big head & shoulders reversal pattern appears to be taking hold. This one will be interesting to see how it plays out over the course of a week.  Best of luck this week.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks!

I hope your having a great trading week! Tonight I’m revisiting our Loonie setup from yesterday. The pair held demand between $1.0950 and $1.0920 moving nicely up the 1-2-3 reversal channel we talked about last night. CAD trade data came in worse than expected growing their trade gap and leaving the Loonie vulnerable to a round of fundamental punches from Dollar tomorrow. Retail sales data and unemployment figures are due in the morning, if the data shows positive signs of the “strong recovery” the pundits have been pitching we may see further gains tomorrow with nothing but risk and oil to drag Dollar down on this pair.There is some interesting price action taking place on the U.S. Dollar Index suggesting at least for the short term Dollar may find some buyers across the board.

Here are today’s charts…

USD/CAD Four Hour

U.S. Dollar Index (Courtesy of NetDania.com)

Best of luck,

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy folks!

I’m back on the trading desk following a long weekend, I hope you are all doing wonderful!  Tonight I’m pondering whether or not the Loonie rally has seen it’s days, at least for the short term. Looking at multiple time frames the pair bounced firmly off support at $1.080 and appears it might be building in a 1-2-3 reversal pattern on the daily chart. The fundamental calendar is heavy for USD starting tomorrow with the Trade Balance, then retail sales and unemployment claims following on Thursday. The Canadian calendar will also see trade data tomorrow but the fundamental opportunities to beat up on another pair seem stacked in the favor of the Dollar for the next couple of days. Assuming of course the sentiment ends up pro Dollar. Tomorrow will also see crude oil inventory data. The pair has also broken the down trend a bit by moving off the lower Bollinger band a bit.  There is certainly demand around $1.080 as the rally on 6/3 illustrated but the question is will this pair move higher from it’s current market or test the low again?

On the upside, I’d see selling pressure resume around $1.150 on the weekly chart but there may be some opportunity here for you counter trend types out there.

Here are today’s charts…

USD/CAD Weekly

USD/CAD Daily

USD/CAD Four Hour

Best of luck…more tomorrow.

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Trading a longer time frame involves a lot of waiting. You may not get a trading opportunity every day or even one in a week depending on your trading rules. Today is one of those frustrating days. The Dollar rally has setup several “pull back” days within the various anti-Dollar rallies. Normally these pull back days would be juicy opportunities for a trend trader looking to buy or sell at a bargain but tonight there is another factor that can’t be ignored, central banks. In the next few hours we will see rate statements for EUR, CAD and GBP which may result in one of two things. Either I’ll wish I had bought the pull back days or I’ll be glad I didn’t.

When I learned to fly my fight instructor would tell me it is better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air, than in the air wishing you were on the ground. I think the advice applies to trading as well. I intend to let the fundamental dust settle over the next couple days. Then we will see where the calmer opportunities are to enter on value.

If you’re planning to tear it up on the 5 minute charts tomorrow, best of luck!

Howdy folks!

Another day, another loss for Dollar. I don’t have much to point out on the long term view. The Dollar beat down trend is still in charge after today’s price action was in the books and since I’m not on the party train there isn’t much to talk about today.

AUD/USD looks on it’s way to test $.8400 which has some interesting price action associated with it and is 61.8% of the move down from $0.9950, an interesting zone to watch for sure.

Tomorrow we see payroll numbers from the ADP Employment Change report. This is either going to help fuel or fizzel the Dollar smack down ahead of Friday’s NFP report so for now, I’m awaitng a clearer daily chart signal.

Howdy folks!

Another Monday evening, another trading week begins. There is a plethora of fundamental news on the docket this week from rate statements to employment data. It will be interesting to see if the Dollar smack down continues unabated among the news sentiment. Being a trend trader I need some good pull back days within these anti-Dollar trends in order to enter on value so I sit sidelined for now. There should be plenty of opportunities mid week to choose from. If your in a contrarian mood, best of luck, I don’t have the stomach for it.

Long USD/CAD?

I had a buddy tell me he was short USD/CAD earlier this morning and it got me thinking about the health of the USD/CAD trend. Being a trend guy I’m looking to sell on a value price, perhaps around $1.1090 but you could look at this pair a couple of ways. Thinking out loud with today’s charts below.

USD/CAD is way outside the bollinger bands on the weekly chart and starting to test an old breakout zone from back in September of last year. $1.080 may find support after the long run down from $1.30 but does anybody really want to step in front of this train right now without some serious confirmation? On the other hand, depending on how this week’s candle closes it may be a long term play back up to $1.15 on the weekly chart.

The daily chart trend is still moving lower with some potential resistance being the $1.1090 level. My preference would be to continue with the daily trend and find a nice low risk selling opportunity in this zone.

Best of luck, more tomorrow!

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.