Howdy Folks,

We had some scheduling and technical issues on Monday that ended up canceling our weekly webinar. I apologize to anyone who wasn’t able to attend. I’ve been out this week so the blog is a bit quite, I’ll be back next week to get caught up.  There is no webinar on the 21st, I have a schedule conflict.

Have a great weekend!

-Ryan

Howdy Folks,

Another day, another high. The GBP/USD rallied again today closing strongly above $1.66. The contrarian in me screams “pull back’s a coming” but the bottom line is we really don’t know what tomorrow will bring. The next major supply level isn’t until $1.6950 but there could be some minor resistance in the $1.67 area. On the long side, I expect $1.66 to be tested from above but there may be enough momentum to pop GBP higher before that happens. I think $1.66 or $1.67 is definitely in play for a potential bounce during the upcoming session, I’d watch those rounds closely. On the bargain day front, nothing much to speak of. This quick rally offered a good deal on Monday but left anyone who missed that in the dust.

Best of luck,

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

Please tell me you caught some pips off Tuesday morning’s breakout!

OK, so GBP/USD has paused below $1.66 and along a minor trend line which begs the question, is a breakout coming or will the pair go lower from here? It’s worth noting the COT data remains net short on this currency and CCI is definitely in “overbought” territory. I may be a price action fanatic but I do have a weakness for the CCI indicator, I just like it for some reason. It’s a decent trend tool but as always, price action is king in my opinion.  Tomorrow the fundamental calender may help get this pair moving. We’ll start off with the Halifax HPI data which showed improvement last month followed by the BoE rate statement. Should be an interesting day to watch but I need this pair to convince me on a direction before I take any further action.

How about that AUD/USD? End of the road for now? What do you think?

Good luck,

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks,

I hope you had a great trading week! Just a reminder, Monday I will host another webinar focused on support and resistance techniques you can trade around a busy schedule or day job. If you would like to attend you can register via this link:

http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=69dbc41f-0165-46f8-94a8-78987afa5095

Last week we had some great questions and it was a lot of fun. I hope to see you on Monday! Have a great weekend!

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

Well it figures the first bargain day I get to talk about on this blog ends up a looser. Overnight $1.64 turned out to be the round number of choice as GBP/USD rallied straight through the highs of the last few days overnight. I had a feeling this bargain day could end being a two day rally after all the GBP/USD selling but hindsight is always profitable eh? I had a small short at $1.6330 and lost on that one, it happens. On to looking for the next opportunity. To you GBP/USD longs, nice work but don’t worry, I’ll get my money back from you on the next one! 

-Ryan

Howdy Folks,

I didn’t post a New York preview this morning because I was busy selling USD/CAD this morning. I wish I had paid more attention to GBP/USD though because it had a great run up to the 61.8% ratio after $1.62 broke long. If you were around, I hope you made some pips on that run. Anyway on to this evening’s GBP/USD chart. There is some fun stuff going on GBP/USD’s daily chart. I talk about “bargain days” often in my weekly webinar and tonight we have what I would call a “bargain day” live, and in living color to study. There is a plethora of nifty stuff happening around this bargain day including the bottom of a larger ascending channel which has broken to the downside, a minor channel trend line and of course the round number of $1.63 just above today’s high. In my opinion $1.63 will probably be challenged overnight so I’m looking for a sell north of $1.63.

Here’s to hoping you U.K. traders gun $1.63, hint hint….

Best of luck,

Ryan

IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. My opinions or other information contained in this post do not constitute investment advice. It should not be understood as a direct recommendation to buy or sell any currency contract or other investment vehicle. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Howdy Folks,

Nothing in the way of “bargain days” to speak of tonight so on that front I’m awaiting a decent opportunity to talk about. This morning I posted some thoughts on GBP/USD ahead of the New York session and I’d like to follow up on that. First, I received a few emails and people seem to like the idea so I’ll do more as the days roll along.  Second, believe it or not I actually took a long GBP/USD trade for a short period this morning that booked some profit so I thought I’d go over that one in tonight’s post.

When planning trades before the New York session I like to see the market trading near support or resistance from the previous day with a decent support / resistance or Fibonacci based profit target. Trading during an active session is a little more dynamic and things happen quickly but with a little practice you can use entry or market orders as your headed out the door. One thing is for sure though, sometimes trading on support and resistance is like running into a burning building when everybody else is running out.

As I wrote this morning I liked the support along $1.62 from yesterday and I anticipated a bit of a bounce on this level which we got. I closed my long near resistance at $1.62451 for 54.6 pips. In my opinion round number bounces are only good for 30 - 50 pips in most cases plus it was up against a nice inter-day resistance line. I really should have sold short again when the 15 minute candle closed with that gravestone / doji / “yo fool I’m reversing again” candle, but I didn’t. I hope you did!

See you tomorrow!

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

Well it’s a new month and another great morning to trade. I thought I’d add a new feature to the blog today by posting a morning New York session thought on GBP/USD whenever I see something interesting to talk about. If you like this idea, let me know and we will do more of them. Last night I talked about $1.62 potentially holding support and this morning we see the round number and it’s demand level getting quite a test. The big GBP/USD sell off overnight was apparently triggered by PMI data that missed the market, at least that is what the financial press wants to attribute it to. Perhaps, but one thing I’ve noticed about fundamental shocks is the price action is usually not sustainable unless the data is a huge game changer. So the question is, will $1.62 hold or not? I have an angle on this I’ll share as the day unfolds but this is definitely a demand level worth watching in my opinion.

Best of luck today!

Ryan

Howdy Folks,

We had a great webinar this afternoon full of really good questions. I had a lot of fun and I hope you can make it next week! There have been a few comments about the time scheduled for this webinar. I realize that 12:00PM / 19:00GMT isn’t that convenient for folks who work full time. Originally I thought these would be recorded so you could watch them on your own time but as it turns out they are not. I will chat with the FX Street folks about adding another time slot that is more convenient or moving the one we currently have.

On to tonight’s GBP/USD chart. I decided to accommodate last week’s price action by drawing the channel slightly lower. Although technically today’s daily candle closed in bargain day territory it is really a questionable sell in my opinion. Just reading the chart we see a hammer on the daily, rising support through the channel and the round number $1.62 in play here. On the four hour chart we see a possible 1-2-3 reversal pattern. However on the sell side the fundamentals may play a factor. Tomorrow there are three reports due out for the U.K. including the Halifax House Price Index. The Right Move HPI report missed the numbers by a long shot and helped fuel a GBP/USD sell off although the Nationwide HPI last week showed improvement. Even with the bullish technical picture the fundamentals may end up crushing this currency. Either way, yesterday was a bank holiday in the U.K. so I expect some fun as traders return to work tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see if today’s demand level around $1.62 holds any assault as London comes online tomorrow morning but for now, I’m patiently waiting for this currency to do something interesting…

Best of luck,

Ryan