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The Disciplined Trader

'Market and Human' Psychology perspectives with tips on how to avoid common mistakes by Pierre Charlebois, Senior Trading Coach at www.TradingPostFinancial.com

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How do fractals show us trader sentiment and emotion

Posted on August 1, 2008 at 17:06 in Uncategorized by Pierre Charlebois

Here’s a great example on the CHF/JPY for fractal observation.
Chfjpy_aug1_08

It is possible that this pattern is creating a pattern at the end of a similar pattern of one larger degree. In the drawing you can see similarities in the last part of the pattern compared to the larger overall shape.

It is still difficult to tell on this pair if the final pattern is complete. When it is, we will see evidence in this in an overall sentiment change by the traders. You see it’s the emotions of the traders that create these patterns making them ever so smaller (or sometimes larger) in appearance as the emotions oscillate back and forth in what they are believing and feeling as they trade.

In this case as the patterns becomes smaller, they are changing their minds with increasing frequency withing the greater overall bullish sentiment. What will eventually happen is a final very small pattern looking just like the largest one will form at the end of the channel (This may or may not have happened as it is hard to read the last smallest pattern). When this occurs, then the overall greater sentiment will take place with a longer term direction change and a new pattern will emerge.

This will provide great trading opportunities knowing the general direction of the pair going forward for some time to come. In fact this reversal will likely foretell a multi-year top.

This theory is also somewhat evident in Sunil Mangwani’s blog of http://forexology.fxstreet.com/2008/07/harmonics-withi.html

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