Well nobody know this for sure, however the very fact that we have come to visit it for tea so to speak, suggest it may fall some time this year if not very soon.
In the meantime what about the short and medium term? will it hold up over the next few days to cause a reversal? At this time it is holding however the retreat from the price point is dull and lack-lustre. So until we move away another few hundred pips I would be cautious.
However, one thing is clear; we are very oversold on the GBP/USD and overdue for a correction. If we breach below the current low of 1.3620 I would expect a fairly dramatic move and then a very sudden and strong reversal.
The level is very significant and will act as support, resistance and even as a sort of magnet drawing the price back to that level over the next year or so.
Let’s take a look at the USD/CAD when it reached its ten year price around 1.00 USD. It blew through the 1.00 level on the first visit but quickly reversed and spent 9 months straddling the line before finally breaking back out.
So what will happen to the GBP/USD at it’s ten year level?
Here’s a view of the USD/CAD from last year.
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