'Market and Human' Psychology perspectives with tips on how to avoid common mistakes by Pierre Charlebois, Senior Trading Coach at www.TradingPostFinancial.com
Asian Session: Live Market Analysis
by Dr.S.Sivaraman
November 23, 05:00 GMT
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Being an Elliottician I am cautious to always look for more than one potential wave structure and count. Elliott is a good tool and ultimately helps greatly however I believe one must be very careful at not being attached to any one expected outcome.
Here are two (and I’m sure there are many other possibilities) potential wave counts on the EUR/USD.
I think the key level to watch is for a break below 1.4682
Here’s a view of the USD Index on a 4 hour chart. The break is very impulsive looking and should top out in a nice 5 wave pattern. (and I think it’s not quite done yet)
Then the form of the pull-back would idealy be in 3 waves and then a launch back into 5 waves up.
The most likely in the short term is a wave 4 and 5 over the next two days. This equates to the same on the EUR/USD only reversed.
I posted earlier that the last top could give way to a drop below the current trend-line and that it could be significant.
Volatility has returned to the EUR/USD. This in itself does not guarantee a turn however it comes at the end of a long trend. A rebound and new low could now define the trend.
The pair made one more top.
Now a break below the trend-line would be significant.
New highs are possible on the EUR/USD.
The reverse from there is strong and should be at least a temporary top.
The Channel has to break down sooner or later. I expect a correction down, close to the current levels, however new tops on the EUR/USD may yet be registered in the next few hours/days.
At this time although the USD Index is showing signs of a bottom I’m not satisfied the EUR/USD has made a final top.
There are three possible Elliott Wave counts and frankly the 2 corrective counts rather than the reversal count is a better fit at this time.
All three counts call for a reversal prior to a continuation.
Here is closer look at the Index on the one hour chart and a view of the EUR/USD.
1.4840 is the likely target for the first bounce if we are indeed heading lower.
