In times of uncertainty the Carry Trade unwinds.
The carry trade is where investors borrow from Japanese banks and re-invest in higher yielding markets like savings and stock in another country. It is also done on the spot market by buying JPY pairs while selling other pairs to offset possible losses as the market fluctuates. In theory the JPY go up and interest is paid on the offsetting trades.
Now what if the JPY starts to strengthen too fast and the JPY pairs fall faster than other pairs go up. What if holders of foreign assets need to pay back the JPY they have borrowed, as their assets become worth less? The trades no longer offsets and positions need to be unwound as they start going negative. So during financial instability JPY pairs go DOWN!
So I would look for selling opportunities on all JPY pairs.
Cheers and good trading.
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