As I was doing my daily studies I see there is now abbout an equal possibility that the pair is forming a wave 4 triangle.

Wave 4 triangles always seem to drag out and frustrate. Sound familiar? If this is the case we should break out the top quite dramatically to form a terminal thrust. The support is anywhere between the current price and the bottom at 1.4050

Well, sonner or latter we will see just what the pattern was we were stuck in once we break out.

Cheers

The NZD/USD is breaking support short term and now pushing down hard on the long term.

My view is that 5 waves up as a diagonal may be complete.

We are at cross-roads on both pairs. I have believed for weeks now that a new top on the EUR/USD was expected but I am now also seeing the possibility for the GBP/USD.

Here’s a potential Elliott Wave count on both pairs with an alternate on the GBB/USD. I have to say there is a 50/50 chance of either one on the GBP. The defining line therefore becomes 1.6650 on the GBP/USD. A break above opens the door to a new top. however, I expect some retrace on the GBP/USD. Let’s see if the line at 1.6650 holds and becomes the trend defining barrier.

This pair has been flirting with it’s old top for weeks. Jamakemecrazy! Here’s a possible Elliott Wave count. I’m not jumping in just yet but will be watching closely.

There is a slight possibility that a top is in place. Let’s see what the next few days bring. Also note that the weekly volatility has been going down on this pair since it bottomed last October. As we are now printing weeks that are below the average volatility price travel, a potential break out is coming due.

Most pairs are below their 52 weekly average which is a common break-out signal. The question of course is which way will the break occur?

I’ll cover this in more detail over the next few posts

Here’s a potential count on the dollar index. How it relates to the EUR and GBP is to be seen.

This pair has carved out a very nice ending diagonal. I will admit, I am not quite sure if the pattern has terminated or if one more blow-off top is to come. This is why I have offered two Elliott wave counts.

This pair should be observed for either a new or double top with a strong reversal, or for continued breakdown of support areas. Below .65 and then below .62 should result in much lower printings.

With such a strong move up, I am presenting an alternate count to the ending diagonal.

I don’t favour one over the other at this point.

I don’t have a handle on the internal wave structure of the apparent ending diagonal. So use caution as this is the last day of the month and just about anything can happen.

I’ve been observing the USD/CAD a lot lately. It sure took a dramatic turn back towards its recent lows.

Here is a possible EW count. Note that I always say possible as there are often many counts that fit a wave.

I’ll updte as the pattern plays out.

There is strong resistance around 1.43 on the EUR/USD.

I’m not sure that this is the final top, however I would expect that a break above this could be capped by the old high @1.4340.

For now, I would expect more re-tracement downward prior to another attempt at a new high. Conversely a sudden thrust upward from here should prove limited.

From an Elliott Wave perspective; many scenarios are possible - Here are the two most likely that I see:

A) This pair could be forming an ending diagonal. If this is the case, we should see a strong but choppy wave 4 pullback towards the lower trend-line.

B) If a conventional 5 wave up is forming then we should see a thrust upward from around the current level.

The Economic News release Docket is loaded tomorrow with Bernanke speaking again. It promises to be a volatile week.