The NZD/USD is breaking support short term and now pushing down hard on the long term.

My view is that 5 waves up as a diagonal may be complete.

We saw a climb in the EUR/USD during the European trading session but the price hit a wall at the level of the previous day’s high of 1.4363. So I am now being cautious in my expectation of a new high. A break below the key support should put that to rest.

We have now gone below the previous day’s low. This is a bearish sign for this pair. The next level to break onthe way down is 1.4000.

To note: We are siting on the cusp of many a supporting trend-line on most USD pairs and on the EUR/JPY.

We are at cross-roads on both pairs. I have believed for weeks now that a new top on the EUR/USD was expected but I am now also seeing the possibility for the GBP/USD.

Here’s a potential Elliott Wave count on both pairs with an alternate on the GBB/USD. I have to say there is a 50/50 chance of either one on the GBP. The defining line therefore becomes 1.6650 on the GBP/USD. A break above opens the door to a new top. however, I expect some retrace on the GBP/USD. Let’s see if the line at 1.6650 holds and becomes the trend defining barrier.

Volatility in a market is a good thing. Without it we wouldn’t have many trade opportunities. Here’s how to measure it.

On any chart set there is an indicator called ATR or Average True Range. This measures the travel of a period (bar or candle). You can set the periods measured to get an average OR set it to 1 to simply get the measurement of each candle.

I set my charts at 1. What this does is shows the total travel of each individual candle from high to low (not open to close). Then I look at the graph to see it Volatility is increasing or decreasing. Trends tend to reverse when volatility changes.

Here’s a weekly chart where I have also added a 52 period to get an average candle size for reference and superimposed it on the 1 period. Looking at this chart one has to question where the volatility went and when is it coming back AND what will happen when it does.

The EUR/USD has not had a weekly move greater than the average since May and has been below average since then. “Some 13 weeks” (Oh how Fibonacci)

This pair is just pips off the .618 from last year’s high.

As I am watching and trading the US session the one currency pair that has me thinking it turning (for the short term at least) is the USD/CAD. It double bottomed at 1.0725 and is now making higher highs.

To watch for is that the retrace does not break the low and that it starts making “higher highs”

The EUR/USD has reached a pivot point where the trend could be determined.

The USD/Index is looking a little overbought. So some retracement is due.

However the obvious Head and Shoulders pattern is providing a barrier to watch, for further USD strength.

Here’s a potential count on the dollar index. How it relates to the EUR and GBP is to be seen.

This pair has carved out a very nice ending diagonal. I will admit, I am not quite sure if the pattern has terminated or if one more blow-off top is to come. This is why I have offered two Elliott wave counts.

This pair should be observed for either a new or double top with a strong reversal, or for continued breakdown of support areas. Below .65 and then below .62 should result in much lower printings.