About a week ago I wrote about the hedge percentage of the GBP/USD and it’s still the same at this time, even after the volatile move in this pair today, but not followed by other GBP pairs.

EUR/GBP is still heading south (red bars) but percentage to hedge is back to zero.

Only a close this week above 0.8600 will make the bars green and so the trend.

Another view on the strength and weakness of the major currencies and cross rates,  which you can compare to earlier posts about this subject.

Good to see that the currecies, quoted in Yen, are all in the red zone, so below 1000, which means on average, more downward pressure than upward pressure.

Be aware following this strategy, to look at interest rate differentials, especially in Yen currency pairs.

We see the GBP/USD holding it’s trend up (green bars)  as we are looking to the weekly picture of hedging the major currency pairs.

However the precentage is returning in the direction of neutral and only a (NY) close below 1.6185 this week will change the bar color to red and the trend down.

All other major currencies don’t show much change compared to their last signal and those charts are on:

http://www.2hedge.com/mmfxhedge.html

Is this the bottom of the US Housing starts ?

Total housing starts were ate 532k in May, rebouding from 454k in April.

The revious low was 488k in January, the lowest since the Census Bureau began tracking the housing start figure in 1959.

Maybe the figure is better, but don’t the many houses still for sale in the USA !

This is not something for a real strong US Dollar.

Just try this easy tool and see what the global FX market is doing.

It shows also different performances tables in real money and pips.

http://www.finviz.com/forex.ashx

In earlier post we explained the calculation as in the chart below.

Top chart is EUR/USD, 2e chart is USD/CHF, 3e chart is EUR/CHF and 4e chart is the indicator.

Normally the changes are small and profits are low , and so is risk, however last Thursday the indicator at the borrom had a big move up at the close (NY 4 PM) indicating to buy EUR/CHF at 1.5103 (incl. b/a spread) and sell both EUR/USD at 1.4113 and sell USD/CHF at 1.0707.

On last Friday close the EUR/CHF was 1.5119 (+13 pips), USD/CHF 1.0787 (- 80 pips) and EUR/USD 1.4012 (+99 pips) wich is nett + 37 $ pips.  

Just a quick look ranking strength and weakness on the major FX Rates and  major Cross Rates.

You can compare this with my earlier post on May 22th.

GBP/JPY now the strongest at 159.00 was on may 22th. 149.69

USD/CHF now the weakest at 1.0787 was on May 22th. 1.0866

The strategy is to hold the 2-3 strongest long and the 2-3 weakest short, depending on available margin in your trading account.

Below a number of Currency ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds) quoted in US Dollar.

This 1e step in ranking means the strongest and weakest in this group and not a buy/sell signal, but interesting to see the developments during the last months as each colomn is 1 week.

Looking further in the ranking the ETF’s we see below that the Australian Dollar ETF trend is up for last 58 days and it’s 3-month ROC is the the highest of all.

The number 10 near the bottom we see the Yen ETF turned down (Quoted in US Dollar) with a negative 3-month ROC. 

This type of looking to Forex is different compared to Spot trading but many use Currency ETF’s for hedging their stock portfolios’and/or long term currency investors as well.

This time a look at a major cross-rate EUR/JPY and at the bottom of the chart the percentage to hedge for corporate use to avoid currency risk as much as possible.

For speculators however we see a double top for a possible break to higher levels.

Any break of the double top will force the hedge percentage indicator quickly up also while the downside support levels are still far away.