Forexology
  • Home
  • Join our trading community
  • Back to FXstreet.com

Forexology

Aiming for the trader's success by creating awareness of the 3M's: Mind, Money & Method by Sunil Mangwani, CEO at FibForex123.

Subscribe

Subscribe Subscribe Subscribe using Netvibes
Or subscribe via email:

Categories

  • Uncategorized

Archives

Recent Comments

  • Arvind on London Workshop 21st- 22nd June 2009. Patience & Discipline
  • su25 on London Workshop 21st- 22nd June 2009. Patience & Discipline
  • su25 on London Workshop 21st- 22nd June 2009. Patience & Discipline
  • Man on Managing the Wolfe Wave
  • vassilis on Harmonic patterns, Elliot waves & Divergence…all together.

Tags

FXstreet.com Weblogs

  • CEO's Weblog
  • Wayne McDonell
  • Dr. S. Sivaraman
  • Valeria Bednarik
  • James Chen
  • Ross Yamashita
  • Raghee Horner
  • Ron Schelling
  • César B. Leiceaga
  • Ian Coleman
  • Greg Michalowski
  • Mike Baghdady
  • Dale J. Pinkert
  • Trader of the Year

Links

Harmonics on Gold

Posted on August 14, 2008 at 14:46 in Uncategorized by Sunil Mangwani

This is with reference to an earlier comment on the current situation on Gold.
If we are looking at the weekly chart, is this a bullish Gartley pattern?
Gold1

While it does respect the fib levels within the legs of the pattern, there are a couple of points which are worth looking into.
Firstly any fib level and subsequently a harmonic pattern is more effective if plotted on a swing high / low which has acted a pivot.
In this case, the starting point of the pattern ‘X’ is a swing low which is a pullback within the existing uptrend. Hence this dilutes the effect of the fib levels.
Secondly, as we can notice the first retracement ‘B’ does not form exactly at the 61.8 level. In a Gartley, this point is often an exact retracement.
Hence we can scale down the effectiveness of this pattern to a lower level.
Now it does not in any way negate the pattern, since price will always respect the fib levels.
But in the favor of the pattern, the reversal point ‘D’ has formed at a confluence of 2 fib levels, as described in the chart image.

So, let’s look at this situation from a different perspective.
Gold2

Looking at this daily chart, we can observe that there was a bearish Gartley pattern which had formed. The structure of this pattern was quite precise as described in the chart image, and one would expect the pattern to fulfill the price objective….which it did.
Gold4

One can see that the price objective of this bearish Gartley was achieved quite accurately.
Hence one would expect this price target to turn into a support zone.
Coming back to our bullish Gartley pattern, now we can balance the different views we have on the situation and conclude that –
The point ‘D’ seems to be a support zone which could turn into a reversal area.

Let us plot the initial price objective of this bullish pattern, which should be the initial move…if price rallies up.
In any harmonic pattern, the minimum price objective is the confluence of 2 levels –
(a)    Calculate the distance of the wave ‘B-C’ and plot it on the low of ‘D’.
(b)    The 61.8 – 78.6 Fib retracement of the wave ‘C-D’
We can this set a target zone in this area.
In this case, this target zone is also capped by a trend line which we can plot on the highs of ‘A-C’.
Gold3

This becomes a target zone and we can expect price to reach there, if the momentum turns bullish.
A safe entry into this long trade would be on the break of the Fib retracement 23.6 (of wave C-D), which is also a major support zone.
Lastly, at the risk of repeating the same point again & again, we never assume anything and do not jump into any trade.
We follow the “If-Then” principle and let price guide us into the trades.
Sunil.

6 Responses to “Harmonics on Gold”

  1. on 15 Aug 2008 at 9:10 am1ali dollar

    sir, get me the symbol to trade gold at NY exchange.ETF gold etc

  2. on 16 Aug 2008 at 10:36 pm2Eric

    Sunil,

    We gold (ZGZ8) continued slide it looks as if it may have completed a bullish gartley, and silver (ZIU8) looks to have completed a bullish butterfly. Have a look and please your opinion is appreciated.

    Gold (ZGZ8)
    http://i114.photobucket.com/albums/n244/eesnard/ZGZ8BullishGartleyprojection111710.png

    Silver (ZIU8)
    http://i114.photobucket.com/albums/n244/eesnard/Ensign-5.png

  3. on 17 Aug 2008 at 6:42 pm3Emil

    Dear Sunil,
    Thanks for a very interesting thread. I am new to harmonics and have appreciated your systematic approach very much.

    There appears to be some interesting patterns forming that may correlate nicely with the bullish pattern on gold. For exmaple:

    (i)Dollar index (DX) there is a bearish bat (daily)

    (ii) USDCAD daily bearish butterfly

    (iii) USDCHF bearish gartley.

    It would be great to have your opinion on those patterns.

    Many thanks

  4. on 21 Aug 2008 at 9:10 am4D Bista

    Hi sunil:
    here is Eur$ bullish gartley pattern I hv identified today
    x= 1.4639,a=1.4805, b= 1.4690, c= 1.4761, D= 1.4678

  5. on 15 Sep 2008 at 5:02 pm5Effiong

    sir,
    please send me symbolic lessons on eurusd. good work.

  6. on 20 Oct 2008 at 12:06 am6James Phuc

    Dear Sir,

    It’s interesting to learn some market analysis from you, especially about spot gold price.

    Recently, spot gold prices fluctuated very drastically (upwards and then downwards), so, how do you think about it? Does the price of spot gold still follow technical analysis or it only follows market information (for example: Economic turmoil, depression, people need a lot of CASH to settle and compensate for their losses in stock market, or buy cheap stocks, or buy cheap real estates, etc?).

    Could you please kindly give your detailed technical analysis on the future market price movements of spot gold (near-term, medium-term, and longer-term)?

    I heard rumors that recently, spot gold prices were strongly downwards due to strong MANIPULATION (people said it was from FED?. Is it true?). They even said the the price of spot gold will reach low levels of USD630 - 650/ounce very soon in this November, 2008.

    By the way, I just wish to know in case I subscribe to your monthly service, is it possible for me to receive constant updated market analysis of spot gold prices from you every week?

    I am waiting for your further information and reply to all my above questions soon.

    Thanks and regards,
    James Phuc

Theme by Forex Street Powered by Wordpress

The comments and posts published in this blog ARE NOT trading recommendations. They can NEVER be considered as trading calls or advices. If you decide to use the information offered here for your real trading it is at your own risk.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer.

© 2010 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.