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We are looking at some long term harmonic patterns on the Eur/Usd Monthly time frame. We do know that Euro & Gold have a very strong correlation
(Refer to my article on Currency correlations - http://www.fxstreet.com/education/forex-basics/important-things-to-know-about-your-currencies/2008-11-11.html
Since we have been following Gold for some time now, it would be worth looking at the Euro for some similar movements.
Looking at the monthly chart of the Eur/Usd, let me first put up a chart image taken in the month of November.
A strong support at the 78.6 fib level, had given us an indication of a possible harmonic pattern in the making.
Looking at the current situation, price seems to have found resistance at the 61.8 Fib level.
Now, even though the monthly bar of December has yet to close, we can look at this level as a strong resistance, since price had been rejected at this level previously (as seen by the blue horizontal line)
This does seem to be in tune with an expected down move in Gold.
But again, we don’t trade without any additional confirmations.
First & foremost, we should wait for the monthly bar to close, which means that we should wait till the end of the month.
If the monthly bar does not close higher, then we start planning for short trades & enter on confirmations.
But lets also play the “Devils Advocate”
There seems to be the possibility of a bullish hidden divergence forming. In that case, we could be looking at some strong up moves.
Maybe price has a nasty surprise in store for the year ending -J
In either case, we have a fair estimate of the extent of the move..
Sunil