Trading the NFP data, or for that matter any important fundamental new release, is not something I do…and definitely not something that I would recommend.
I believe some traders swear by it, but I look at it as something of a gamble, as there are too many odds stacked against you.
And If I want to gamble, I would rather go to a casino -:))
Anyway, it’s just a personal opinion & let’s get down to the subject at hand.
I was looking at the USD/JPY on the 4hr, where a harmonic pattern was under way and the price movement, post-NFP pushed it to the required fib level.
Now again let me clarify, that this was not traded.
I wanted to put this as another example of how price respects technical levels….fib levels, previous support/resistance levels, pivot levels, and even dynamic trend line levels.
Basically I want to infer 2 points from this example -
1.) Whatever is the reason that causes price to move (the NFP data in this case), we can estimate the extent of the move. Now doesn’t that give you an edge??
2.) Price action always gives you clues & you do not need indicators. Now this does not mean that one should not use indicators, but always use them as a secondary factor…rather than a leading requirement. If only one can take the efforts to study the price structure…and understand the logic behind the forming of chart patterns…one will be ahead of the pack.

So, let’s get down to the trade.
I was looking at a bearish Butterfly pattern, where the first 3 waves had formed at the correct fib levels.

As we can see, the wave B-C had formed at the fib 61.8 and it was time for the NFP data on the first Friday of the month.
It would have been “make or break” for the pattern & there was no way that one could estimate that price would complete the last wave C-D….which it did.
Once again, the point here is that the sharp moves due to the NFP data, found resistance precisely at the Fib levels of “D” -
(a)    The 127.2 % fib projection of wave “X-A”
AND
(b) The 161.8 fib projection of wave “B-C”

Now, tell me that Fibs don’t work -:)))

Now this completes the bearish Butterfly and one would expect price to change trend to the downside, to fulfill the price targets of this harmonic pattern.

But, repeating my Mantra once again.
We never assume anything & wait for price to confirm.
There are certain rules and conditions for a proper entry into a harmonic pattern & we wait for these conditions to fulfill.
The beginning of the new week could bring some surprises & new moves, so we wait.
Once again, I wanted to show this setup, as an example of how price respects fib levels…regardless of the circumstances that cause the price movement.
Sunil.