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Danske Bank - Global Business Cycle Monitor: More recovery signals

Posted on July 6, 2009 at 13:00 in Forex, World Economy by Francesc

Global PMI rose further in June, but the increase was smaller than in previous months. OECD’s leading indicators, however, continue to rise strongly and reached levels signalling above-trend growth in Q4 09.

The order-inventories balance from PMI data also continues to point to a marked increase in global growth in H2 09.

In the US most leading indicators continued higher. The ISM new orders index slipped slightly in June, though, after rising strongly for several months.

In Euroland OECD’s leading indicator, the PMI order-inventory balance, and ZEW point to a significant rebound in H2 growth. Other surveys point to a more muted recovery. In Scandi a sharp rise in Swedish PMI stands out rising above 50 for the first time since June 2008. Other countries and surveys also point to improvement, albeit at a slower pace.

Asia continues to perform strongly. Especially the sharp rebound in industrial production in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea is worth highlighting. CEE shows further rise in PMI. Russian PMI increased strongly again in June.

Outlook: We look for further improvement in leading indicators in coming quarters and for some catch up in the US and Europe in H2 09 following the production rise in Asia.
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Tags: Global Business Cycle, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, More Recovery Signs of Global Economy

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