Standard Chartered, one of the most successful crystal ball gazers in the 2010 FX market, according to Bloomberg rankings, has put its neck on the line and predicted the eight big trades in 2011.
Top Trades for 2011
1. Short euro-S.Korean won (from early Q1)
2. Short euro-Indian rupee (from early Q1)
3. Long yuan-yen (from early Q1)
4. Long yuan-Thai Baht (from early Q1)
5. Long Singapore dollar vs. G3 basket (dollar, euro, yen)
6. Long US dollar-yen (from early Q1)
7. Short Australian dollar-Canadian dollar (in H1)
8. Short Brazilian real-Mexican peso (in H1)
Standard Chartered’s success rate for 2010:
1. Short GBP-KRW (in Q1-2010) - Correct
2. Short EUR-INR (in Q1-2010) - Correct
3. Short ZAR-IDR (in Q1-2010) - Correct
4. Long USD-CNY 3 month non-deliverable forward/short 1year (in Q2-2010) – Correct
5. Short JPY-KRW (in Q2-2010) - Correct
6. Short JPY-TWD (in Q2-2010) - Wrong
7. Long EUR-JPY (from late Q2-2010) - Wrong
8. Long EUR-CHF (from Q2-2010) - Wrong
Francesc Riverola,
