Canadian news moved the market today. Watch the video to see how we scalped the USD/CAD and CAD/JPY for 25 pips on each trade. The rest of the day was mostly sideways. 50 pips in 8 mins aint bad… but the following three hours was slow. Crude oil was trading in a $3 range. Other than that, slim pickings.

Oil was the story today. Not only did it move, but it moved the stock market and the yen pairs. This video shows how to use Andr Oil was the story today. Not only did it move, but it moved the stock market and the yen pairs. This video shows how to use Andrews Pitchfork and Weekly Pivot Point analysis. (more)

Just as the London session was beginning we had a few early starters making an initial break. One of these was the EUR/USD which was essentially poised to continue it’s ride south ‘riding’ the 5ema on the Daily to at least 1.5560, likely eventually to 154.50. To start the day EUR/USD bounced off a 38.2 of yesterdays range, and the hourly 21 clearly showed it was in charge. After a few lower hourly high’s we had a fresh 5ema/8sma cross on the hourly and we were off. Then it was a simple matter of loading up on the quality Fibonacci retracements offered to us. First being after the initial break at the 50% area of the last swing around 1.5640, and the latter was a sweet reload around the 61.8 fib at 3am or so 1.5608-11. The latter entry had the added advantage of additional resistance there such as an overlapping 15m 21 ema, hourly 5ema, 4hr 200 ema etc. As I am writing this we are sitting on today’s S2 at 1.5524 threatening a further drop. A fairly painless 75-200 pips depending on how you handled profit taking/reloads etc.

FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens

The market’s response to tomorrow’s release of the second estimate of first quarter U.S. GDP will likely be muted, if recent history of price action in response to such preliminary estimates holds true. The U.K. house prices report from Nationwide, due for release at the open of the European session, just might set the tone for the day on the British pound.

Register for this Session

Expert: Wayne McDonell & David Pegler of FX Bootcamp
Moderator: Maud Gilson
Start: Fri, May 30 2008, 11:00 GMT
End: Fri, May 30 2008, 13:00 GMT

Summary:
In this long-term educational series, called "FX Bootcamp Basic Training", we will start you at the very beginning: teaching you how to crawl. Over the next several months, you will learn how to stand, step, walk, run, and sprint your way into the forex trading industry.

The FX Bootcamp Basic Training series includes technical analysis, fundamental analysis, inter-market analysis, trade analysis and of course psychological analysis. Each of the presentations will a mix of webinar and live market data.

The third chapter (May) will teach you Stochastic, MACD, and RSI Oscillators.

Please plan on attending future presentations at FXstreet.com:

June: Pattern Recognition, Currency Correlation, Commodity Correlation, Inter-market analysis.

July: Breakouts, Continuation Patterns, Trending and Naked Trading.

August: Pivot Points, Andrews Pitch Fork News Trading.

September: Trade Planning, Carry & Swing Trading, Trader Psychology,

October: Money Management & Trader Psychology.

November: Central Banking and Global Money Flow.

December: Course Review with Q&A: GRADUATION!

May 26 - 30, 2008

       EUR/USD   GBP/USD   USD/CHF   USD/JPY

R3      1.6216      2.0346     1.0828      106.41
M5     1.6115      2.0222     1.0764      105.98
R2      1.6014      2.0098     1.0701      105.54
M4     1.5951      2.0023     1.0585      105.00
R1      1.5888      1.9947     1.0470      104.46
M3     1.5787      1.9823     1.0406      104.03
PP      1.5686      1.9699     1.0343      103.59
M2     1.5623      1.9623     1.0228      103.05
S1      1.5560      1.9548     1.0112      102.51
M1     1.5459      1.9424     1.0049      102.08
S2      1.5358      1.9300     0.9985      101.64
M0     1.5295      1.9225     0.9870      101.10
S3      1.5232      1.9149     0.9754      100.56

       USD/CAD   AUD/USD  NZD/USD   EUR/CHF  GBP/CHF

R3      1.0174      0.9801      0.8127     1.6548    2.0907
M5     1.0130      0.9764      0.8071     1.6506    2.0823
R2      1.0086      0.9727      0.8015     1.6463    2.0740
M4     1.0039      0.9693      0.7973     1.6383    2.0624
R1      0.9992      0.9658      0.7930     1.6302    2.0507
M3     0.9948      0.9621      0.7874     1.6260    2.0423
PP      0.9904      0.9584      0.7818     1.6217    2.0340
M2     0.9857      0.9549      0.7775     1.6137    2.0224
S1      0.9810      0.9515      0.7733     1.6056    2.0107
M1     0.9766      0.9478      0.7677     1.6014    2.0223
S2      0.9722      0.9441      0.7621     1.5971    1.9940
M0     0.9675      0.9406      0.7578     1.5891    1.9824
S3      0.9628      0.9372      0.7536     1.5810    1.9707

       AUD/JPY   EUR/JPY    GBP/JPY   NZD/JPY   CAD/JPY

R3     100.98     166.44      210.52      84.16     107.44
M5    100.75      165.79      209.53      83.59     107.05
R2     100.51     165.14      208.53      83.02     106.66
M4    100.17      164.59      207.56      82.54     106.10
R1      99.82      164.04      206.58      82.06     105.53
M3      99.59     163.39       205.59      81.49     105.14
PP      99.35      162.74      204.59      80.92     104.75
M2      99.01     162.19       203.62      80.44     104.19
S1      98.66      161.64      202.64      79.96     103.62
M1      98.43     160.99       201.65      79.39     103.23
S2      98.19      160.34      200.65      78.82     102.84
M0      97.85     159.79       199.68      78.34     102.28
S3      97.50      159.24      198.70      77.86     101.71

* - based on GFT DealBook 360 price data

AVERAGE
(Last 4 Weeks)

EUR/USD   140
GBP/USD   166
USD/CHF   123
USD/JPY    116
AUD/USD   108
USD/CAD    98
NZD/USD    96

GBP/CHF   229
EUR/CHF    96
AUD/JPY   131
CAD/JPY   147
EUR/JPY   153
GBP/JPY   245
NZD/JPY   125

** - Based on DealBook 360 price data through Friday, May 23, 2008

Tomorrow’s New York session will bring the April figures for new home sales from the U.S. Census Bureau. The arrival of data from the typically busier spring season for the housing market means this latest report should draw more attention than those from the winter months.

Thursday’s news calendar highlight is the release of the United Kingdom’s retail sales results for April during the European session. Last month saw a drop of 0.4% in retail sales volume, and recent signs from multiple economic indicators suggest that gloomier figures are a real possibility.

After a better than expected German IFO news event, and as expected Bank of England Meeting minutes, we spotted some 15 minute MACD/stochastic divergence playing out on the yen pairs. After taking a closer look we were able to locate a substantial amount of overlapping resistance on the GBP/JPY around 203.80 or so. This seemed to offer us a fantastic setup for a bounce off of this area for at least a 100 pip extension back down. All we had to do was wait for it to get there and look for some short term confirmation in order to enter our shorts. This resistance consisted of the daily central pivot point, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of yesterday’s range, the hourly 200 ema, 4 hour 55ema, and daily 21 ema. All of this was in the 203.75-203.80 area. As we were nearing this area we turned to a short term chart for confirmation, and sure enough we spot very clear 2 minute macd divergence to the downside exactly while getting a macd cross at 203.80. On top of this the German DAX, and DOW/S&P futures market turned to the downside. Placing a short around here with a very low risk profile (stop just above 204) provided a fantastic risk vs. reward for this or any other yen pair short. Within one 15 minute candle everyone was 70 pips in profit, and we reached our first target just over 100 pips into the move. Quite a conservative, repeatable entry right off resistance with confirmation. It really does not get any better than this.

FXBootcamp London Currency Coach- Christian Stephens