[Click on the graph above for a larger version]

One of your most important indicators for trading the Forex market is the clock. Knowing how to trade — using technical and fundamental analysis, managing risk, adopting a trader’s mindset — is critical, but your effectiveness as a trader is limited until you know when to trade. The above graph [click on the graph to view a larger version] is a visual answer to the question, “When does the AUD/USD tend to move?”

The small black squares on the graph represent the average range (high minus low) for the 15-minute candle which opens at the time of day designated by the scale at the bottom of the graph. The gray bars, which stretch above and below the black squares, represent what statisticians refer to as the 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the range for candles at that time of day. For an example of how to interpret those gray bars, look to the one labeled “Eastern European Open”. The average range of the 15-minute candle which opens at 06:00 GMT, based on AUD/USD price data from June 15 through August 14, has been about 16 pips. Recent data suggests the range of that candle has been statistically different from the average range (12 pips) of the previous 15-minute candle, but not statistically different from the average range (16 pips) of the next 15-minute candle. In simpler terms, the AUD/USD has recently seen a significant surge in volatility during the hour beginning at 06:00 GMT, as compared to the volatility during the prior 4 hours.

This graph does not in any way predict the direction that the AUD/USD moves at given time. It only shows how big the 15-minute candles have tended to be at different times in the day.

Times shown at the bottom of the graph are GMT. To convert GMT to your local time, go here.

Curt Wehrley
FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090806_hurricaneupdate.html

Hurricains, if they enter the North Western part of the Gulf of Mexico, can distrupt oil supply lines.  If traders are concerned about supply and inventory reductions, oil prices can jump.  If we remain fully supplied, or as govenment data shows that we are currently over-supplied, then oil price can fall.

Weekly Pivot Points*
August 31 - September 4, 2009

* - Based on a trading week starting on Sunday at 21:00 GMT and ending on Friday at 21:00 GMT, using price data from GFT’s DealBook 360 platform. To convert GMT to your local time, go here.

Weekly Pivot Points spreadsheet - This spreadsheet contains the weekly pivot points displayed above. The data can be downloaded in any one of several file formats by clicking the Export option on the spreadsheet’s menu bar.

Printable version - This is a printable version of the weekly pivot point tables displayed above.

Average Daily Ranges* for use during the trading week of August 31 - September 4, 2009

* - Based on GFT DealBook 360 price data from August 3 to August 28, 2009. “Upper BB” predicts the maximum daily range for 95 of every 100 trading days, and is calculated by adding 2 standard deviations [of the ranges over the August 3 to August 28 period] to the average daily range.

Today the EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF 2hr macd divergence we have seen for over a week finally was followed up by some lower highs on the EUR/GBP and higher lows on GBP/CHF. Hinting Strongly at minimum of a 21 ema pullback on these long term charts was about to occur. This meant essentially we had technical reasoning to go Long British Pound Sterling against all comers all night long at any support possible until either resistance was hit, or failure in the form of 1-2-3 pattern’s etc. There were high quality long entries on GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, and short on EUR/GBP well into the pre-London session. These parts all offered again high quality pullbacks as the London market opened around 8am London time. In this video I focus on just one of these pairings, the GBP/JPY. I show in detail the divergence we spoke of that led us to believe Sterling strength all night would be the theme, along with complete details on how we put together a ‘Reload’ of the GBP/JPY long off a double bottom 61/8% Fibonacci and other overlapping support. I also discuss how we planned our profit takes, and determine where this trade might go. Excellent night overall, nice GBP basket trades that really cleaned up tonight, could not ask for a better way to end the week.

FXBootcamp London Currency Coach-
Christian Stephens

 Supply data says “Yes”.

The US dollar had attempted, but failed, to make new gains against multiple currencies for a full round-the-clock cycle. During the final hour of European trading, the USD bulls seemed to give up, and the bears stepped in. Currency correlation, identification of basic support and resistance, and a Fibonacci study contributed to creation of a trade plan to go long on the GBP/USD currency pair. Those traders who took the shot, then closed the trade at the next significant level of resistance, earned a 60-pip profit at today’s London close.

Curt Wehrley
FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

Hey Everyone. Tough London trading prevails however we are trading in the context of some longer term direction especially on the Pound related pairs. In this presentation I draw up a conservative trade plan for Pound Yen and Cable. Lots of Fibonacci work today as well as longer term chart use for an intraday bias. Good luck and have a safe weekend. David Pegler

[Click on the graph above for a larger version]

One of your most important indicators for trading the Forex market is the clock. Knowing how to trade — using technical and fundamental analysis, managing risk, adopting a trader’s mindset — is critical, but your effectiveness as a trader is limited until you know when to trade. The above graph [click on the graph to view a larger version] is a visual answer to the question, “When does the GBP/JPY tend to move?”

The small black squares on the graph represent the average range (high minus low) for the 15-minute candle which opens at the time of day designated by the scale at the bottom of the graph. The gray bars, which stretch above and below the black squares, represent what statisticians refer to as the 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the range for candles at that time of day. For an example of how to interpret those gray bars, look to the one labeled “U.S. equity market open 9:30am ET.” The average range of the 15-minute candle which opens at 13:30 GMT, based on GBP/JPY price data from June 15 through August 14, has been about 43 pips. Recent data suggests the range of that candle has been statistically different from the average range (32 pips) of the previous 15-minute candle, but not statistically different from the average range (42 pips) of the next 15-minute candle. In simpler terms, the GBP/JPY has recently seen a significant surge in volatility during the 15 minutes after the U.S. equity market open at 13:30 GMT, as compared to the volatility during the prior 15 minutes.

This graph does not in any way predict the direction that the GBP/JPY moves at given time. It only shows how big the 15-minute candles have tended to be at different times in the day.

Times shown at the bottom of the graph are GMT. To convert GMT to your local time, go here.

Curt Wehrley
FX Bootcamp’s Quantitative Analyst

Hey everyone. Today’s video is a busy one to say the least, I conduct analysis and build trade plans for 4 currency pairs. Cable, Pound Yen, Pound Swiss and Euro USD. You going to need to bring your “A” game today as it’s a support and resistance and relative strength buffet. Today the Euro Pound cross is going to be a key proxy for the whole currency market I feel, even as far as the USD is concerned. Good luck and I hope you enjoy the video. David Pegler