Comments on: USD/JPY Update http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxpath/2008/08/07/usdjpy-update/ Technical Trading Tips and Techniques by James Chen, Chief Technical Analyst, at FX Solutions Sun, 08 Nov 2009 06:11:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: James Chen http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxpath/2008/08/07/usdjpy-update/#comment-97 James Chen Thu, 07 Aug 2008 19:15:05 +0000 http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxpath/2008/08/07/usdjpy-update/#comment-97 Thanks for the insight, Richard! - James Thanks for the insight, Richard!

- James

]]> By: Richard http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxpath/2008/08/07/usdjpy-update/#comment-96 Richard Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:38:13 +0000 http://blogs.fxstreet.com/fxpath/2008/08/07/usdjpy-update/#comment-96 The yen carry traders went long the dollar and short the yen and other commodity currencies as oil traded off some today; this blasted USD/JPY higher. The Yen died today, FXY -1.4%. And the others were butchered: FXA -.7%, FXE -.3%, and FXC -.5%. The US Dollar, $USD, rose 0.5% to close at $74.25 at 200 day moving average. And the EUR/JPY moved back up: it is now cresting into an Elliott Wave 2 up; and will soon be going in an Ellott Wave 3 down causing massive disinvestmnet from stocks bonds and currencies globally. The 'mother of all yen carry trade unwindings' is about to occur. The author in 'Calendar Yen Trading Patterns' provides historical record that EUR/JPY and USD/JPY is frequently down in the month of August Today's action in the USD/JPY definitely is contrary to the seasonal norm as it boomed to 109.40, and could continue to do so; it is difficult to go short at this time; but going short EUR/JPY seems reasonable if one holds the investment maxim that I do: "In a bull market be a bull; in a bear market be a bear. In a bull market, one buys on dips; in a bear market, one sells into strength"; thus today's strength in the EUR/JPY to 1.699 is to be shorted. The yen carry traders went long the dollar and short the yen and other commodity currencies as oil traded off some today; this blasted USD/JPY higher.

The Yen died today, FXY -1.4%. And the others were butchered: FXA -.7%, FXE -.3%, and FXC -.5%.

The US Dollar, $USD, rose 0.5% to close at $74.25 at 200 day moving average.

And the EUR/JPY moved back up: it is now cresting into an Elliott Wave 2 up; and will soon be going in an Ellott Wave 3 down causing massive disinvestmnet from stocks bonds and currencies globally.

The ‘mother of all yen carry trade unwindings’ is about to occur.

The author in ‘Calendar Yen Trading Patterns’ provides historical record that EUR/JPY and USD/JPY is frequently down in the month of August

Today’s action in the USD/JPY definitely is contrary to the seasonal norm as it boomed to 109.40, and could continue to do so; it is difficult to go short at this time; but going short EUR/JPY seems reasonable if one holds the investment maxim that I do: “In a bull market be a bull; in a bear market be a bear. In a bull market, one buys on dips; in a bear market, one sells into strength”; thus today’s strength in the EUR/JPY to 1.699 is to be shorted.

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