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GBP/USD - Trendline Breakout / Bullish Rebound

Posted on October 13, 2008 at 13:15 in Analysis by James Chen

GBP/USD Daily Chart(Please click on the accompanying chart to enlarge.)

As of early Monday morning in New York, price action on the GBP/USD daily chart, as shown, has broken out above the steep downtrend resistance line that has been in place for the last couple of weeks. Currently, price is approaching a key support/resistance level around the 1.7450-1.7500 zone. A clean break above this zone should confirm that price has indeed begun a bonafide correction of recent bearish activity. In this event, further upside momentum could eventually target key resistance up in the 1.7750 region. Oscillators like the displayed Stochastics are pointing up from prolonged oversold conditions.

UPDATE: As of Monday afternoon in New York, price has retreated somewhat after its strong bull run of this morning. Price closely approached the resistance mentioned above, but respected it without a break. More updates on this pair to come as price action unfolds …

UPDATE 2: As of early Tuesday morning (New York session), price on the GBP/USD has indeed made a bonafide upside correction, as expected, easily breaking the 1.7450-1.7500 zone and following-through. As noted above, a major resistance target to the upside remains around the 1.7750 region.

UPDATE 3: As of Tuesday afternoon in New York, price has slowly retreated down below the 1.7500 level. A technical bias to the upside within the context of the current correction, however, still exists.

2 Responses to “GBP/USD - Trendline Breakout / Bullish Rebound”

  1. on 13 Oct 2008 at 9:57 pm1St_Fx

    Hi James,
    Its an educational question, I have reade and watch the many videos for breakout trading strategies, form that its looks very simple but some question came in mind ,i)place the trade on break the trend line and S/R ,how can we confident in this volatile market condition (one way move bullish and bearish)and price after most beyond the daily average move of cable (or say buy on this breakout/higher price form the daily average move).ii) How can we benefit from position trading (holding two days or a week).Any tip,hint,or advise that can be help full to us. Thanks

  2. on 14 Oct 2008 at 12:58 pm2James Chen

    Hi St_Fx,

    Thanks for your great questions, as always. I will actually be doing a breakout webinar here on FX Street next month. But to attempt to answer your question, breakout trading can be very tricky with all of the volatility that you mention. One way to deal with this is to use filters that get you into the breakout trade only after certain requirements are met (e.g., number of pips, bar close, time, indicator confirmation, etc.). This will usually get you into the trade a bit late, but you can be more confident that the break is real. Other than this, I have other ways to play break outs that are beyond the scope of this “comments” section. I will present them in the webinar next month. Thanks, St_Fx!

    - James

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