(Please click on the accompanying chart to enlarge.)
As shown on the accompanying EUR/USD daily chart, price action early Monday morning has broken out above the descending resistance line imposed by a large descending triangle consolidation that has been in place for the last month or so. Though strongly bullish as of Monday morning, this is just a tentative break thus far. In the event of a continuation of bullish daily bars, price could eventually target major resistance in the 1.3250 region. Updates with additional levels/targets to follow as price action develops.
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Hi James
Good to have you back!
How does one confirm that this breakout is a clean breakout and not a false breakout given the volatile conditions we have been experiencing recently? Can a single candle bar close serve as a confirmation or would it be better for more than 1 bar close, combined with some fib levels?
Thanks
su25
Hi su25!
Great to hear from you again! I generally stick to a single bar close, at the most, with good risk management in the form of well-placed stop-losses. Yes, the volatility has been staggering, but I think that when one uses more than a 1 bar close, one risks altering the reward:risk ratio for the worse in the form of entries that may be too late. Getting in late necessarily makes it so that the technical stop-loss may be too wide, and the profit target may be too narrow. So, I think one is best served by just a 1-bar close. However, I do think that your second suggestion of using fib levels and or levels like pivot points make more sense. It’s always good, in my opinion, to employ several techniques that confirm each other. Often, confluence (as long as it’s not paralyzing) equals high-probability trading. Hope that helps. Thanks, su25!
James Chen