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EUR/USD - Coiling Up for an Aggressive Move

Posted on December 9, 2008 at 15:09 in Analysis by James Chen

EUR/USD Daily Chart(Please click on the accompanying chart to enlarge.)

Price action on the EUR/USD daily chart, as shown, has been coiling up within a triangle consolidation, likely in preparation for a major impending directional move. Like other pairs that are currently entrenched within triangles, EUR/USD has been respecting the borders of its triangle, unwilling to commit to a decisive direction as of yet. A triangle break to the upside could signal a possible reversal of the prevailing downtrend, with major resistance around the 1.3250-1.3300 zone. An eventual break to the downside of the triangle could signal a continuation of the prevailing downtrend, and should meet key support around the 1.2330 region.

4 Responses to “EUR/USD - Coiling Up for an Aggressive Move”

  1. on 09 Dec 2008 at 6:03 pm1R.P.

    Yes I would agree that the trend downward for the EURUSD on a daily chart seems to have run out of steam. If you move down? to 1 hr charts with about 1000 obs. displayed the trend upward is more evident (ignoring of course the intraday trend shifts).

  2. on 10 Dec 2008 at 3:44 am2Jose

    Hi James, this a great blog…also fx solutions has a pretty good platform.
    for you EUR/USD analysis, are you trading it soley off a daily chart or are you looking for entry exit off the hourly or 4 hour? Also is your play to take a breakout or wait for a pullback after the breakout?
    thanks for your comments.

  3. on 10 Dec 2008 at 8:06 am3Nick

    Pennant Flag suggests we are to see a move. Wall Street Cash suggests that the current bullishness and move into risk assets could see some upside for the EUR 130-13250

  4. on 10 Dec 2008 at 1:59 pm4James Chen

    Hi R.P., Jose, and Nick,

    Thank you very much for your comments. Nice observations. And Jose, to answer your questions, I usually look for the big technical picture on the daily charts, and then go down to 4-Hour and hourly, just like you mentioned, for potential entry opportunities. As for the breakout play, I will usually look for a bar close beyond the line of break, and then the next bar continuing in the direction of break beyond the breakout bar, with tight risk management. But sometimes I will wait for a pullback. Hope that helps. Thank you!

    James Chen

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