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EUR/USD - Beginnings of a Bullish Reversal?

Posted on December 11, 2008 at 13:10 in Analysis by James Chen

As of early Thursday morning in New York, EUR/USD has made a substantial bullish stride to launch off the support base that has been developing for quite some time now. Could this be the beginning of a turn in the pair? Possibly. But from a technical perspective, price would need to blow substantially past the 1.3300 level in order to state more definitively that the consolidation has been broken and a reversal, or at least a major correction, has indeed begun. If this happens, relevant resistance targets to the upside will be posted here.

UPDATE: As of early Thursday afternoon in New York, price has made remarkable gains, moving well past the above-mentioned 1.3300 mark. Further bullish momentum could target the 1.3550 region, a significant support/resistance level.

UPDATE 2: As of Thursday mid-afternoon in New York, price has stalled just above the 1.3300 level, as the drastic bullish run has likely exhausted itself for the day. If the next daily candle (Friday) surpasses today’s high, this pair could potentially be looking at a continuation of the upside correction, in which case the resistance mentioned above should continue to be valid. Before that happens, though, we should be seeing some sort of retracement of the substantial gains that were made throughout the day on Thursday.

UPDATE 3: As of early Friday morning in New York, price continues to have somewhat of a bullish bias, though a retracement in this bullish correction should be due at some point soon.

6 Responses to “EUR/USD - Beginnings of a Bullish Reversal?”

  1. on 11 Dec 2008 at 3:35 pm1Federico Ramirez, Leon Mexico

    Is the Euro really getting strong or USD is weakening ? if so, then the Euro will go down once the car bailout is approved.

    There is no real evidence at all that the euro zone is improving, so the above is the reason for such bullishness.

  2. on 11 Dec 2008 at 4:05 pm2James Chen

    Hi Federico!

    Thanks for your comment and analysis of the fundamentals. Very nicely expressed. I am concentrating on the technicals for this move, and if there is much further bullishness, there could be a good, exploitable continuation of an upside correction. As you say, this move could very well fizzle out soon, but if price moves convincingly above 1.3300, I believe there may be further room to the upside that can be taken advantage of. Thanks, Federico!

    James Chen

  3. on 12 Dec 2008 at 5:02 am3Brian Gardner

    Regarding the EURUSD pair, if the ECB and Bank of America moves their central bank rates closer to the zero mark and deflation begins to present itself can we see a EURUSD trading at the 1.6000 and beyond? (Question regarding bullish reversal)

  4. on 12 Dec 2008 at 1:55 pm4James Chen

    Hi Brian,

    Thanks for your comment and question! 1.6000 represents the all-time high for the EUR/USD. At this time, I don’t think that we will see that level again anytime soon. What we are seeing now is a bullish break of the previous consolidation that looks like it might turn into a major correction of the overall downtrend. But in my opinion, the 1.6000 area is an extremely improbable target at this time. Thanks, Brian!

    James Chen

  5. on 15 Dec 2008 at 2:04 pm5FX Path » EUR/USD - Continued Bullishness

    [...] noted on this blog last Thursday (”Beginnings of a Bullish Reversal?“), the EUR/USD bulls were targeting the 1.3550 region, a significant support/resistance [...]

  6. on 18 Dec 2008 at 5:28 pm6john

    As what i have researched USD is now weakening but i don`t think that they would be remain i that position. For the upcoming months lets us think positively.This will be soon become as a strong competition.

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