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Potential Flags/Pennants on USD/CHF and EUR/USD

Posted on March 25, 2009 at 12:45 in Analysis by James Chen

USD/CHF Daily ChartAn inverted pennant consolidation as of Wednesday morning has formed on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, just as a tentative flag has formed on EUR/USD. These small consolidation patterns after dramatic dollar-weakening moves last week hint at the possibility of continuations in the direction of these moves, but only if there are significant breakouts of these patterns. In the case of USD/CHF, a breakdown of the inverted pennant should meet immediate support just above the 1.1100 region. And any breakdown of that support level would indicate substantial continuing bearishness in the pair that could target further major support levels to the downside. A similar situation, but in an opposite fashion, should hold true for EUR/USD on any upside breakout of the flag pattern.

UPDATE: As of early Friday morning (3/27/2009), price action has invalidated these flags/pennants as continuation patterns, breaking instead in the opposite directions. These patterns appear now to be acting as reversal consolidations.

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