Price action on the majors as of Thursday (4/16/2009) morning, as shown on the accompanying EUR/USD daily chart, continues to consolidate in a relatively tight range. On EUR/USD, this consolidation is taking place just below a long-term downtrend resistance line extending from the second test of 1.6 back in July. The lower border of the consolidation appears to be around the 1.3100 support region. Any significant breakdown below 1.3100 should quickly meet further support around 1.3000. And any breakdown below this latter level would be a substantially bearish indication that could target March lows. To the upside, the noted long-term downtrend resistance line should continue to provide strong dynamic resistance for the pair.
UPDATE: As of Friday (4/17/2009) afternoon, price action has descended all the way down to approach the 1.3000 support level mentioned above. Price is continuing to experience significant bearishness. Any true breakdown below 1.3000 should signal continued substantial bearishness in the pair going forward.
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Hello Mr. Chen,
When do you think the EURO/USD will break out of this range trading and give us some real direction?
Hi Mark,
That’s a great question. This pair has been consolidating for quite some time now. I’m looking for a substantial break of this consolidation very soon, and my bias is bearish at this point. Thanks, Mark!
James Chen
In your opinion do you believe a good entry zone to sell would be around 1.3080 or in the range the market is in at this time. I guess either way would present a large amount of risk.
I will bet on bearish, too. The pair has no power to break 200SMA and for that reason it will go bearish. of course, if there is no important news, although i can’t imagine such important news
Mr Chen, please forecast what is upcoming on today (Friday) for the pair. Would it possibly break 1.3100, just an opinion indeed?
Dear Sir,
As expected, the eur/usd will drop till the 1.31 zone. But will it go futher down below 1.30 zone?
Many thanks
Regards,
Reez
Hi Mark,
Thanks for your follow-up question, and sorry for the late reply. I guess the question doesn’t really apply now, but I usually wait for a break of support/resistance before entry, plus an entry filter. Support was broken, but bearish momentum doesn’t seem exceedingly strong at this moment. Thanks again, Mark.
James Chen
Hi Maxu08,
THanks for visiting and for your comments!
James Chen
Hi Sam,
Thanks for visiting, and sorry for the late reply. As you know, the pair broke 1.3100, but seems just to be wavering just below at this point. I will post analysis on this pair soon. Thanks, Sam!
James Chen
Hi Reez,
Thanks for visiting and for your question! The next big target to break is the 1.3000 zone. Not sure at this point, though, if there is enough bearish momentum to break that level. I will post more if any significant price action develops. Thanks!
James Chen
Dear Sir,
Thanks for ur reply. Appreciate it most.
What will be ur advice / views on the market right now ?
Will be waiting for ur new post.
Thanks.
Regards,
Reez
Hi Reez,
Thanks for your follow-up. Price has gone all the way down to approach 1.3000, but it looks like that’s going to be pretty much it before the weekend. I’m looking for significantly more bearishness on any potential break below 1.3000 next week. I’ll keep you posted on more analysis for this pair then. Thanks, Reez!
James Chen
Dear Sir,
Thanks for the input.
Have a nice weekend.
Regards,
Reez