USD/JPY (a daily chart of which is shown) broke down below a key uptrend support line this past Friday as bearishness prevailed for most of the week. This uptrend support line extends from the second test of 87.00 back in January. The trendline was unable to contain the bearishness of the pair, which has followed a short-term downtrend resistance line extending from the 101.43 swing high hit just three weeks ago. The upcoming week of April 27 to May 1 should confirm whether the uptrend line breakdown was, in fact, real or not. Continued downside momentum on the bearish break of the uptrend support line could easily shoot for 96.00, and then potentially further down around 94.60, the peak between the 87.00 double bottoms. If the trendline breakdown proves during the upcoming week to have been false, a re-break above the line could once again target resistance in the 99.65 price region.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
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