This is a very common affliction, especially among technical traders. Paralysis by analysis can occur when traders have too many studies on their charts and seek endless confirmations before taking any action. This is the polar opposite of traders who initiate trades recklessly based on “gut feeling” alone. Paralysis by analysis may be the lesser of the two evils, but both of these afflictions can be extremely detrimental to forex traders.
There is a lot of good in being cautious and conservative when deciding to take trades, but becoming paralyzed by the decision-making process can be totally counterproductive. Having all of the latest and greatest indicators on your charts can be exciting, but will it really help you become a better trader? Maybe, but probably not.
A good remedy against paralysis by analysis is a combination of solid risk control and money management. Technical analysis is very helpful in setting risk management measures like a logically-placed stop loss that’s not too tight and not too loose, and a good reward-to-risk ratio. And money management is an absolute essential for any trader who wants to be successful. With these prudent measures in place, traders need not be paralyzed by the trade entry process. A trader will never come anywhere close to 100% correct, even with 50 indicators, oscillators, trendlines and squiggly lines pointing in the same direction at the same time. But that’s perfectly okay, as long as risk and money management are in good order.
This is not at all to say that traders should ever just jump into trades without first doing their proper analysis. As mentioned, that is an evil in and of itself. But there are many traders that are utterly unable to pull the buy/sell trigger unless all of the many stars in the galaxy are perfectly aligned. This almost never happens.
Stick to the essentials and only what works best for you over time. When a good opportunity presents itself according to your careful analysis, take it. But always have strict risk controls and money management guidelines in place.
- James Chen, CTA, CMT
* I will be key speaker at FXstreet.com’s International Traders Conference in Barcelona, Spain in October 2009 - for more information, please go to: www.traders-conference.com .
* For information on my book, Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.
* Follow my intraday forex updates on Twitter: http://twitter.com/JamesChenFX
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Dear James Chen
A practical advice you have given.This happens during trebd reversal time - when resistance becomes support or support becomes resistance.
Thanks for your thoughtful suggestions.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Hi Dr. Sivaraman,
Thanks so much for visiting and for your comments! Keep up the great work on your excellent blog (http://blogs.fxstreet.com/marketreadings/)!
Thanks,
James Chen
I couldnt agree more with this article. Newbie traders looking for the holy gral indicator should know that the only holy gral in forex trading is money management and logical trading setups. With logical setups i mean, if its an indicator that brings you in a trade, its the same indiactor that brings you out of the trade (and not a pip value!). If a trendline break brings you in a trade, you are out and only out if the trendline is broken again and makes your setup invalid. If a MACD histogram increase brings you in a trade, only a MACD histogram decrease under your entry level brings you out of the trade, (and not a 50 pip SL that you set for example)
Hi Dr. Schrenk,
Yes, I agree with you wholeheartedly. Thanks for visiting and for your keen advice to traders!
James Chen