EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, resumed its bearish drive in the month of April, continuing the strong downtrend that has been in place since the early December 2009 high. April saw some bullish corrections, but ended the month lower than it began. The beginning of May is seeing some dramatic continued bearishness, confirming that EUR/USD is still very much entrenched within a steep downtrend. Price broke down cleanly below several key support levels in the beginning of May, including 1.3250, 1.3100, and 1.2900. Currently, the outlook for the rest of May continues to carry an overall bearish bias in line with the current prevailing downtrend. As of early May, EUR/USD stands at a fresh 13-month low. In the expected event of continued bearishness for this currency pair, a key downside support target resides in the 1.2500 price region. Before that level is potentially reached, however, price action could likely be characterized by multiple short-term counter-trend (bullish) corrections.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
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