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Can You REALLY be on both sides of the Fence?

Posted on October 30, 2008 at 4:52 in Trading Ideas by Tim Salem

Yes you can!…and that’s what today’s topic is all about!

We can continue to use our Pound Yen example we have been working with this week. After the FOMC cut the U.S. Interest Rate by .50bps…we did see some dynamic Price action…or did we ???

The continuing formation of our macro Bear Flag rolls along, and our actual Flag really developed into a nice Channel. 

Beautiful Bear Flag (Bearish).

Beautiful Flag Channel (Bullish).

BOTH Sides of the Fence!   :-)

When we see major data releases, we usually have some anticipatory thoughts on the matter. The Fed Decision was no different. Well…you must know my feelings on the matter by now.

Hold? Hike? Cut?…

It’s irrelevant to me…from a Trading perspective…

Remember…I try to REACT…not predict.

If I am bearish….I will continue to follow the “criteria” of our Bear Flag…looking to use key price levels for high probability selling levels. The Fibonacci retracement would be an effective tool for our needs…as seen here.

(Click once to view the captures)…

 

 

 

Now…if I am bullish…I will look for opportunity on a higher time cycle such as the Hourly…as seen here with our Channel.

 

 

( …and of course…we saw the bullish scenario develop nicely as we moved along…reaching 162.90’s as of the completion of this writing…)

OK OK… I know what all of you want to know… “Well CVJ…what side of the Fence were YOU on?”

Here’s where today’s “built-in Lesson” comes in…

I still maintain my Bearish view. That’s right! I missed the whole upside swing here!

So…to maintain my view and focus, I only look to sell into strength here.

You may be saying, “But Tim…look at the opportunity you missed here today!”…

The Key here is I actually missed nothing.

I gained everything by sticking to my conscious Choice.

Try to remember…An Opportunity is only lost…..if you were aware of it and did nothing in the first place…

Tags: federal reserve, fomc, interest rate, opportunity, predict, react

4 Responses to “Can You REALLY be on both sides of the Fence?”

  1. on 30 Oct 2008 at 5:411oxgn

    Your words are really valuable for beginners :)

  2. on 30 Oct 2008 at 6:532Tim Salem

    Greeting Oxgn,

    Thank you for the kind comment!

    I am pleased, as I am try to “steer” the Blog in a direction that is beneficial to follow on many levels of the learning curve, for all types of Traders.

    Sincerely,
    - Tim -

  3. on 30 Oct 2008 at 8:213Dr. S. Sivaraman

    Dear CVJ
    asa you said market continues to give opportunities.We may not be able to capture every opportunity.As it comes and mature we can take profit from the trades.Profit making is our objective irrespective of levels.
    Regards
    Dr.Sivaraman

  4. on 30 Oct 2008 at 9:074Tim Salem

    Hi Dr. S!

    Thank you, indeed, for your encouragement!

    I do completely agree…we must maintain our view irregardless of price action.

    The consistency this brings will be much more beneficial in the long-term.

    We always need to be mindful of finding the most probable opportunities that support our market view…..and our level of comfort.

    Sincerely,
    - Tim -

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