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Why I still Love my Nemesis…Gold

Posted on November 20, 2008 at 22:13 in Trading Ideas by Tim Salem

Welcome to Friday, Everyone!

OK…a quick update on the “Pretty Metal Lady” from Wednesday’s deeply volatile day!

While Gold was slightly bullish and relatively stable….the World around Her certainly was not!

(But hey…what does She care, right?…According to our “story”…She’s in Australia grilling Shrimp with new boyfriend, I.M.A. Hedge Fund! …hee hee…   :-)

 Volatility and Risk Aversion still rule the Day…so how did Gold handle it?

 ( click once for capture)

 

 

Our Symmetrical Triangle we identified yesterday continued its’ coiling throughout the Asian Session, and broke north a good 20 Bucks to form a “mini”-Bull Flag, as I call them.

We can see the Fractals here, with our “building blocks-within-building blocks” idea, and if the current directionality continues… a push to our Resistance area of the $760’s is highly probable.

( Remember…Support and Resistance are “relative” in my personal view, so I consider them as active ”areas” or “ranges” that function as Key Levels. Price is not stagnant…so why should areas that define it be? )

 

Remember our Monthly View?

 

 

The Technicals of the Fibonacci retracement itself confirm my Bullish view…Plain and Simple.

 But I know all of you want the big singular Argument!

“CVJ!…Tell us more of your crazy thoughts!”

In which I cordially reply, “It will be my pleasure, and thank you for inquiring!” 

 

   With global assets continuing to deflate, what have the Central Banks of the world economy been doing?

You’ve got it…cutting Interest Rates!

Our Fed, and our friends in the EuroZone and the U.K. will more than likely continue to do so, and how do we “counter” moves such as these?

We “offset” and liquidate Asset Classes to meet Margin Calls. Gold is one of the Tools to do just this. But in a “counter-intuitive” fashion in our current climate.

I say this because Gold certainly has not functioned the past few months as the traditional “Safe-Haven” security blanket like you had as a child.

(This is where our friend, I.M.A. Hedge Fund, comes in! While he’s off in Australia with Gold…what are all of his Hedgie Friends doing around the globe?)

 They are de-leveraging by meeting massive margin Calls using Gold, as well as other “Hedging” instruments, to cover other poorly performing Asset Classes they may have.

This is translating to an impressive increase in “Physical” Gold buying, as the Supply continues to strain.

Supply constrains…Price expands…Economics 101.

Now here comes my token DISCLAIMER!

All of you know by now I tend to hold longer-term views on most things…including Trading itself….meaning “A Scalper I am Not”.

I enjoy the Macro-View, and also realize any of the “actions” that take place will take months to digest and reach their fruition. 

My Bullish Gold view is no different.

We are not seeing Gold as a “hedging” against Inflation in this current climate just yet…but our “Physical” Gold purchasers I mentioned above would respectfully disagree.

 Our own Fed Minutes stated that “More agressive easing (by Central Banks) should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome”.

As soon as the easing ceases, and our Hedgie Friends around the globe stop liquidating everything but their Summer Estates…Gold should rise and appreciate in value, as well as the AUD/USD…the Aussie Dollar.

When?

“I have no idea….and I do not NEED to know because I REACT to…”

Well…if you have followed the Blog daily…you know the rest.   :-)

 

 

 

Tags: Asset Class, AUD/USD, central banks, deflation, hedge fund, inflation

One Response to “Why I still Love my Nemesis…Gold”

  1. on 28 Dec 2008 at 21:531Forex Trading Today » My “Gold-en Girl” Prevails!

    [...] my Post on why I still love Gold a month or so [...]

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