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Here come the Beaurocrats…but I’m on Mute!

Posted on December 3, 2008 at 22:55 in FXstreet Premium Thoughts by Tim Salem

 

Hi everyone!

Let’s check on where we are with Crude Oil after a bearish day yesterday and the release of the Crude Inventory Data.

We find our thoughts in yesterday’s Post to still be valid.

We are still bearish in sentiment with Crude Oil in the near-term…as seen on the Hourly view.

 

(click once for captures)

 

 

 

The Monthly view is again in concert here.

Despite Commodity Inflows dramatically decreasing of late, we still maintain an upside Correction is highly probable off in the distance.

This is certainly not right around the corner…we are off the highs on Crude $100 after all…with no signs of slowing in sentiment.

My view of “Fair Value” here is several years out, and I arrive at my subjectivity in this fashion.

The $80-$95 Range seems a logical compromise between what Supply can support its’ work upon with providing Product to the world… and what Demand can self-adjust with and find contention.

Does “Compromise and Cooperation” work in the markets?

Every second of every day in the Trading Pits and Floors around the world.

It is the true Essence of Trading itself….finding “Fair Value” for both parties all day long.

 

Now…concerning today’s Title…

(The “Crazy CVJ’ers” Fan Club has arrived Stage Left…)

 

“What’s wrong CVJ?…Are you ill?…Did Godzilla eat the truck yesterday?…Why no witty story ?…No funny analogy?…No animated antics today?”

 ”Oh no!…All is Well!  I have simply hit the “Mute” button on Myself.”

“What does THAT mean?”

 It is Genius Week!…Crystal Ball Week!…The Powers-that-Be will shower their Wisdom upon the Masses!

 We have Central Bank Rate Decisions due from the BoE and ECB…

We have a deeply high probability of another dismal Non-Farm Payrolls Release on Friday…

Earlier in the week the RBA “Down Under” cut a full Basis Point with perhaps more easing to follow…

RBNZ at 5% for our Kiwi friends…

Well let’s see…Who’s Next on that List?…another Central Bank we know of?   :-)

 

In these times, we see Currency Market action grind down to a literal halt while we quiet down and await massive Data Points to be injected into the Markets.

When we have “cluster” groups of Releases like this…it is not a trading environment that is needed…by ME!

I emphasize this point because this is where knowing myself and my Trading “Style” really comes into context when it comes to Foreign Exchange.

I will monitor and adjust my work in other Markets as well as open FX positions, but I am simply choosing not to participate in this Market environment over the next couple of days with any new  Spot OTC Currency positions.

Period.

Will I be tempted by high volatility?…perfect dynamic Price action?…missing the finest trading opportunities known to Man?

No.

Period.

You may do as you wish.

Do not listen to me or do as I do.

There is someone more important to always listen to…

Yourself.

:-)

 

 

 

Tags: Australia, crude oil, currency, Data, fxstreet, interest rate, inventory, New Zealand, nfp, Non-Farm Payroll, Premium, Price, session, spot market, volatility, webinar

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