A Blog of Commentary and Ideas from an FXstreet Premium Member by 
Happy Tuesday!
“Our New Zealand Kiwi Dollar Lambs have broken out!…Women and Children First!…Run for your Lives!”
First Things First.
My Market sentiment yesterday on our Kiwi Dollar was wrong.
“You were wrong, CVJ?”
Yes.
Wrong wrong WRONG!
I am proud and happy to admit it, and always feel content doing so.
“Why?”
By admitting my mistakes in my trading views, perspectives, and especially Execution…I can immediately move on and clear my mind for the next potential Position.
Let’s have a look…
(click once for captures)
Yesterday, my thought on a re-test of Hourly Support certainly did not come to fruition, and the “last nail in the coffin” for my sentiment was the bullish upside break @ .5320 through .5360 rolling to .5470 and a clean 100+ pip appreciation of the Pair.
“So what now, CVJ?”
“No problem!”, I say…
Remember…my mid-term view on this pair is Bearish…so I continue to wait for a clear violation of the Daily and Hourly major Resistance/Fibonacci area of .5550.
Now comes my “Built-In” lesson and the Key to my view here.
I WAIT and OBSERVE what Price will do at this level.
If it “hovers” and consolidates here, this indicates that we are “pushing and pulling” and have indecision.
This tell us our probabilities for a downside reversal are higher.
If we shoot right through and our “Lambs continuing leaving the pasture” heading north…then I do NOTHING.
“Nothing, CVJ?…How boring!”
That’s right. Nothing.
At this point, I will wait for a clear reversal in Price and not execute until we solidly break back through .5550 to the downside!
In the same fashion that we want to avoid a “False Break” to the upside…we most assuredly want to avoid one to the downside as well!
So once again…we need to Observe how Price behaves up at the .5550 level.
I remind you I still have not taken a position on our Kiwi Dollar, and due to my mid-term Bearish view…I continue to stand aside and be patient.
I will NOT chase a trade and I will not regret NOT taking one, either!
In spanish we use to say something “have no waste” meaning is something that worth in the whole. Don’t know how common the expression could be in english, but CVJ, really congrats! Accepting we could be wrong and move on, and the wait and see in key levels (not “beting” on a rebound, neither in a break) are part of the sucess. Hope readers really understand this, and not just care about where Kiwi will go. see you!
Regards
Val
Hi Val!
Thanks as always, for your commentary!
I do agree…this psychological view is critical so we may move on and progress!
One cannot move forward wishing and hoping to change the past.
We must move ahead and accept our errors and learn from them.
As we always say…the “Act” of Trading is easy…
The “ART” of Trading is not.
Sincerely,
- Tim -
Sincerely,
- Tim -
Dear CVJ (Tim):
You are not permanently wrong.Because yesterday kiwi broke 0.5550 area and went up but today it has come down.Hence traders use technical analysis and regret to be wrong and later see they would have been right if they hold the position next day.So market is ‘known to disobey’ or ‘made to disobey’ technical and fundamental analysis frequently.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
Hi Dr. S!
Thank you again for your input here!
It is true that the range channel we were in at the time of this writing was confirmed after all.
Your comment is precisely one of the rationales I have for preferring a longer-term view!
Sincerely,
- Tim -
CVJ,
great stuff…question, what are some of the elements you look for to establish solid support or resistance levels? Daily levels over hourly…must have confluence with fibs or pivots or ema’s…your typical look back for each timeframe…do you draw through wicks..# or size of red and green candles at that level mean anything to you? Your response is much appreciated.
Hi Jose, and thanks, as always, for your participation!
To properly address your question, please send along an email…ultramaxgroup@yahoo.com.
There simply is not enough character space here on WordPress to answer each aspect of your question in a comprehensive manner!
Sincerely,
- Tim -
Jose,
Here is the correct Link…
ultramaxgroup@yahoo.com
- Tim -