Hi Everyone!

“CVJ…We knew you were crazy…But now you are inventing your own Currency Pairs?”

Of course!…But I have a “Method to my Madness” in this case!

So relax…and do not get the Firing Squad ready for me just yet…  

I explain at the bottom of today’s Post.

First things First!

Let’s check on our Kiwi and see where we are…

I received some fine comments by my dear friends and fellow Bloggers, Valeria Bednarik and Dr. Sivaraman on my idea about being “Wrong” in my analysis yesterday.

Both are in agreement that accepting your error on views and moving on is crucial to long-term success.

(Hmmm…so maybe your friend, CVJ, is not so crazy after all ! )

We now have a new intraday range to work in, and like many examples on the Blog I have given before…we have Fractal Price ranges as well as the “Fractal Horizontal Ranges.”

See how they all are rather proportionate in “Price range” from each other?…all around 75-100 pips in “length” from the Support and Resistance areas.

(click once for captures)

 Now…about that “new” Currency pair!

Let’s get to a little technical analysis  with the AUD/USD Aussie Dollar Daily view, and see where we are.

I have a general Support and Resistance area of .6350 to the .7000 Handle.

We will need to significantly break the magenta diagonal trend line to really see some Bullish sentiment here in the medium-term…as well as a break or at least multiple tests of Resistance @ .7000.

On the Hourly, we have placed a simple swing Low to High Fib sequence where we find some confluence @ the 23.6%  .6000 Handle.

The 50% Fib Level may contain us in the near-term @ .6500 Handle to the downside, which is our preferred view.

So why do I want to “invent” a new Currency pair?…Here’s why!

Despite the general correlation the Aussie Dollar has with Gold… the more accurate and revealing correlation is with Commodities as a whole!

Who is truly the largest Customer of what Australia has to offer anyway?…All of us here in the States ?

“NO!”  shouts the CVJ Fan Club in unison.

( Maybe they are learning something… after all…there’s only three of them in the Club…hee hee…)    

The Pacific Rim is where the majority of Aussie Exports go…China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, etc.

( See!…my new Pair…the Aussie PacRim!…as in Pacific Rim…clever, isn’t it!… Don’t answer that! )

My Bearish view of the Aussie is simply due to lack of demand and the economic climate issues hitting that part of the world as we speak.

Remember the “Asian Contagion”  back in 1997-1998?

I surely do, as this was when I was beginning my “market” exposure in Equities while I was still a Teacher.

Equities work during this turbulent time was a rapid education in market dynamics!

We could say the “Asian Contagion Part II” may be beginning fundamentally with a slowdown of infrastructure growth all over the Asian world…and until it reaffirms itself…the Aussie Dollar may continue to depreciate.

Remember from a couple weeks back on our Gold posts in the Blog…we are Bullish in the very long-term…hence Bullish on the Aussie as well.

But for now…our current climate may, indeed, prevail for some time.

 In the meantime…I am lobbying direct legislation to the “Foreign Exchange Hall of Justice” to accept my new Currency Pair, the AUD/PACRIM !

What’s the worst that could happen?

Oh yes…From the Frisbee Game last Friday…

Not again !!!???