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Is the Euro due for a Correction? Her Majesty Thinks So!

Posted on December 17, 2008 at 22:43 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem

 

Hello Everyone!

“Help!…HELP!…I’m drowning!…Somebody Save Me!…”

Did you hear that?”

That was Her Majesty doing Her best to ascend from the depths of the English Channel…

“The Euro has Her pinned down in the frigid deep Blue!”

“Our FX Today Crew is on the scene…so let’s have a look!”

(click once for captures)

 

We clearly see the deep appreciation on our Daily view…with clear symmetrical and orderly Price action indicating solid momentum is in place.

Our Bull Flag here is “classic” in form and function. Our Flagpole from .7650 area to .8650 area has clearly “projected” the same appreciation from the bottom of the Flag itself @ .8200 up to the .9300 Handle.

This is, perhaps, the finest example to express my personal view  that Chart Patterns and Formations are most relevant and valid on the Daily and larger times frames.

Down on the Hourly, we add some Fibs and keep in mind we use our Support and Resistance areas as “”dynamic”…meaning they will “rollover” when appropriate( support becomes resistance and vice versa…according to Price action progression).

 

 

A highlighted Ellipse on our Chart indicates a highly probable area of correction.

We have a small “cluster” of the daily and hourly Fibs here @ .9050ish area that may come to fruition.

The prior Price action is consolidating in nature, so it accommodates our view as an area of reprieve and rest.

While a 300-pip correction is a large move in any market, it is especially so in the Euro Pound.

“So why all the way down there CVJ?…Why not a re-test of Support @ the .9220 area?”

A fine question!

My personal view here is simple.

I find the 300+ pip move to the upside rather “impulsive” in nature…again considering the ATR of the pair.

A gain such as this for the Euro Pound is extreme in my view.

Will it pull back soon?…today?…tomorrow?

I do not know.

What I do know is that for myself…to take another long position here is not advised.

Price has appreciated rapidly in one day, and I will not chase it under any circumstances.

At the same time, I will not initiate a short position as well.

We need to see how Price will behave at this clear Resistance level of .9300…break through or begin to descend.

 

 

Tomorrow…we will have a more probable definition of Price, so we will re-evaluate where we are!

 

 

Tags: Bull Flag, dollar, EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, euro, pound

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