Happy Friday to All !

What an interesting January it has turned out to be!….so I thought I would do something a bit different with just some general summaries and thoughts as we move into February.

We have seen upsets, heartbreaks, and surprising action just this month alone! …and that has just been in NFL Football here in the States! …hee hee hee… 

( I am still in shock that my hometown Arizona Cardinals made it to the Super Bowl…much less won a game!…)

“CVJ!…What kind of Team Spirit is that?…You should be left out in the desert to perish!” , the CVJ Guys say…

What can I say?…I have been a witness to Mediocrity since the Team arrived to Phoenix in 1988!

Seriously…we can apply some of the same attributes to Price action in our Foreign Exchange world, as well as many Derivatives we correlate with.

“Crude Oil as tumbled while Gold has rumbled!”…

“The Pound hit the ground but the Queen is back on the attack!”…

“Euro has been fooled by the Swissy Cool!”…

and finally…

“The Dollar and the Yen surely win in the End!”

Here are Daily “Naked” Charts of the above…and my thought here is for YOU to think about your OWN views and thoughts with where we are on all of these Units.

Remember to click for all of the Captures, and Post-Time is 3:10 GMT.

CRUDE ( March Contract)

GOLD (Spot)

CABLE

FIBER

SWISSY

YEN

 Perhaps a bit unusual as a Topic for the Blog, but I really want you to do your own contemplation here…

Remember yesterday when we spoke of the attributes of not having “Favorite” Pairs and Derivatives to work with?…

Use that “New Objective Eye” of yours and tell me your thoughts!

A few Caveats, of course.

No Prediciting or Expectation Allowed!

Tell me what you “SEE”…and formulate your thoughts around this.

Your comments and questions are always welcome and encouraged and I look forward to the interaction.

I will check the Post daily all next week, and next Friday we will see where we are in our Dialogue…so post away!

Happy Thursday!

Our Post-Time is about 14:30 GMT, so let’s update where we are on the GBP/USD !

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims rises to a historic 588K, Continuing Claims for those out of employment for a while clocks in at 4776K, up from 4607K, and finally our  Cars, Washers, and Plasma TVs drop into the English Channel with -2.6% and -3.6% Core, respectively.

“We are shocked, CVJ…Shocked!”,  the CVJ Guys cry….with obvious sarcasm.

Indeed…no real surprises here…increasing Unemployment will sort of curb that new Plasma TV purchase for the Super Bowl this weekend, won’t it…  

Let’s check Cable, and see how our Queen’s swim in the Channel is fairing with Her slight gain due to the Dollar’s losing a few Laps for this swim meet.

(click once for the capture)

We’ll check in for a quick Recap later, and see if the Queen can keep up Her edge in the 400- Meter Swim!

Hello Everyone!

Our friends at the FOMC did not meet us at the door with a bottle of 1951 Chateau Lafite Rothschild …more like a bottle of Ripple from Apu at the corner Kwik-E-Mart!    

We did receive typical rhetoric out of the Monetary Policy announcement full of downside risk and weakness across the board…and again with classic ”Counter-Intuitive” behavior…the Dollar sailed.

So how is the Queen anyway?

When we last had a visit with Her…She was still trying to hang onto the Empire.

A stout rebound off of the major swing Low @ 1.35 gained some traction and well-needed support since Monday.

So…was this Her determination?…or the Dollar simply taking a Nap?

As of Post-Time…the Latter appears to be the case.

“CVJ…If you love the Queen, Cable, so much…Why don’t you just move there!” , the CVJ Guys say with indignation…

“Hmmm…”, I say…

The culture and history of London? …I could handle that quite well !

(We will get back to this later in the Post…)

Here is the Hourly, so give it a click…and Post-Time is 3:50 GMT.

As we have spoken of the U.K. fundamental woes lately, we will not revisit them here.

Let’s simply go by Price action and check in with an Update later in the day to see if any of these levels remain in validation or are breached…as we have plenty of U.S. Data Points to digest with Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, and Durable Goods.

We will see if the Dollar will continue its’ “Fear-Based” Counter-Intuition…or if the Queen,  indeed, does have some life in Her yet!

“And Now…Back to Our Story!”…..

The CVJ Guys bring up a valid point here.

It really is to one’s advantage to not really have a “favorite” when working with Currency pairs…or any Derivative for that matter.

In the Blog, I try to give some variety to the Units that we work with and focus on…but there are certainly scores of Currency pairs to work with out there…

The goal here is to remain as objective as you can…and look for High Probability and Opportunity.

By being subjective and having “favorite” Pairs, we run the risk of actually searching for a Trade  on one of our Favorites…plus…we then have our judgement and observation “clouded” as to not see other possibly fine Opportunities right in front of us.

You will begin to “See” things that you may have otherwise ignored, and reap the benefits of “new Eyes” !

Happy Wednesday to All !

What a glorious and enchanting Day!

The Birds are singing…The Sun is shining…and Big Ben and Friends are arriving later from the Genius Chamber to enlighten us on Monetary Policy !  

Sort of puts a Song in your Heart, doesn’t it !

“We’ll stick to watching the Grass grow!”  , says the CVJ Fan Club Guys…    ;-)

Well…in my view..an aspect of curiosity will be the topic of Inflation.

Would you like to know why I am curious?…what floats my boat?…what spins my wheels???…

THIS!

(Click once for the Captures, and Post-Time is 2:15 GMT)

Give this Capture a click to continue!

 These “potential” large Monthly Flag Patterns represent phases of Price Accumulation…so we will see in a few months which “Flag” comes to fruition.

 Always remember, though…that in a situation of Deflation..the “Bottom” is a super Grey Area and can last much longer than we “expect”.

Inflation, on the other side of the street, can appear in an “instant”…much sooner than we “expect”.

Now…for a long-overdue “Built-In” Lesson!…

REMOVE THE WORD “EXPECT” …FROM EVERY ASPECT OF YOUR TRADING WORK !

Greetings !

Well…it appears our Northern friend, the Swiss Franc, heads home from vacation as it takes a steep dive in Price Depreciation.

“Personally, CVJ…We think the Euro planned the whole thing…It’s Sabotage!” …the CVJ Guys shout !

Seriously…with Gold remaining rather stout and heavily-injected with “Fear-Based Safe-Haven” Momentum… the Swissy may have some of that Momentum as well… as the Dollar fell about 200+ pips yesterday.

It is a Conundrum, though, isn’t it … rather “Counter-Intuitive”…

A bit Risk Appetite did return the to Markets yesterday to support the Majors…citing strong global Equities, and better-than-expected and “positive” Existing Home Sales numbers as the “Catalyst”.

“Sure…whatever they say, CVJ”,  the Guys say.

I agree… and simply choose to define them as Technical movements in Price.

Here is Gold on the Hourly View.

Commentary/Analysis on the Captures so give them a click as always…

(Post-Time is 3:15 GMT)

Swissy is presenting us with some significant Downside direction, and here is the Daily Chart.

On the Hourly, we have some Fibonacci “Clusters” that are confluences of Price into “Magnet” areas that we see so often.

The Hourly Trendline  Break is giving us a “Barrier” to work with here on either side…a “Marker”, if you will.

We will check in with these two Units as we progress with U.S. Data Points due today…as we want to observe how the Dollar reacts with these Correlations here…

Happy Monday Everyone!

Now that we have Gold…and Crude Oil for that matter…rallying in the Commodities Complexes, how have Currency Units been affected the last couple of days?

First things first, though…let’s quickly Recap our beloved Queen!…and see where Pound Dollar has started the week…here is the Hourly View.

Be sure to click on the Captures, as most of the commentary and analysis are within…

( Post-Time is 3:45 GMT)

Let’s examine these recent events by a look at another correlated Gold Pair…the USD/CHF…the Swissy.

Due to the inverse correlation we have with Gold against the Dollar…the Dollar is pulling back against most adversarial Currencies on its’ journey.

Our Breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle here on the Hourly Gold Chart did follow through Friday, so let’s see where we are…

 Here is the Swissy on the Daily view… we are seeing a pullback in Gold as of this writing..so some bullish Dollar strength is obviously evident in the Swissy.

We shall see how we progress throughout the day, and check in for an Update on all three Units if need be…otherwise let’s continue with them for a couple of days.

These key levels and the potential depth of the pullbacks and corrections need to be adhered to, so let’s see how we fair.

As always… Remember these Correlations…and ALL Correlations…will couple and decouple according to their own fundamental and inherent factors…so be sure to view each Unit on its’ own merit.  

Hi Everyone!

The poor Queen!…

We have been trying to rescue her for quite some time now on the Blog here and there…

With her Battle with the Euro, and Her issues on the home front…She has continued to struggle.

It should be no surprise to anyone that the U.K. is officially in “Recession Mode”…with a sharp decline in GDP, and ironically…overall Retail Sales were up a bit.

So what is the Key here?

In my personal view…it is all about “Market Sentiment”.

The Pound itself has been “out of favor” with the anticipations several months ago of the “Black Plague” of the U.S. issues spreading around the globe.

The Yen certainly has not helped things with a “Uni-Directional” view in slamming every Major Currency that comes to its’ shores.

Let’s take a look at an Hourly view, and see what our earlier Data Points brought to the Party…

Analysis and Commentary on the Capture…so give it a click!

(Post-Time is 14:40 GMT)

We will check in with the Channel action Sunday…as well as our Gold Post from the earlier Post.

Our Pennant did, indeed, break and hit our Magenta target there…so give it a look if you have a moment.

Happy Friday To Everyone !

While our Yen Crosses of Euro Yen and Pound Yen continue in their Macro-Ranges with Risk -Aversion easing a little…Gold decides to emerge from the Inauguration Festivities for a visit !

“Stupid Gold!… If there’s a Party somewhere She’s always Invited!…She always gets to do everything! …

Hmmm…the CVJ Guys seem a little perturbed here…  

Here is the Monthly View…

(click once for the captures…and Post-Time is roughly 2:45 GMT)

Now let’s go to the Daily and add an Upside Swing Fib there as well to see if we have some “Clustering” areas and Fib Confluence.

We will also add some Macro-Static Support and Resistance levels as well as a trending Channel.

Our Channel is functioning here as Dynamic Range levels to work with, and if probabilities compliment our view… a touch of the Magenta 876.50 “minor resistance” area would be a fine “target” for us next week.

Granted…we are overall Bearish on Gold in the large Macro-Term, but in this case, we see a probable Counter-Trend View here within the Channel itself.

This would be logical as back out on the Monthly…we really are “behaving” in a large Bear Flag Formation.

“How about the Hourly for our Intraday Friends?”,  asks the CVJ Guys.

“Sure!” ,  I say…

(They’re not so bad after all… the CVJ Guys… at least there’s a bit of consideration in their icy veins!…)

The Hourly provides a nice Range to work in within the “Lower Band” of the Channel.

We have a nice area of Price action that is “behaving” as a Symmetrical Triangle/Pennant Formation…so we may certainly see a Break here relatively soon.

Now…if we obey “Classical” Technical Analysis, and if our Break comes to the upside…we will meet our Magenta target, indeed, by simple measurement of the “Flagpole” itself.

We will meet again, as always, Sunday for the Sydney Open and see where we have traveled.

In the meantime…hide all of your Gold…

The CVJ Fan Club Guys are on the War Path!

Welcome to Thursday !

With the Yen and its’ new best friend, the Dollar, continuing down Risk Aversion Avenue…our Hourly Retracements in these strong Downtrends did, indeed, come through.

We have some working Channels here to observe with our Intraday Support and Resistance Areas functioning nicely.

First Thing First….some thoughts that came to mind with my Update yesterday.

About one minute after the Intraday Update yesterday, we saw a surge of Yen strength in the Crosses.

Of course…this struck me as a bit “ironic”,  in that my commentary on the Captures were referencing the retracements and possible upside sentiments.

While they did finally arrive…the “ironic timing” of the Post became another fine example of one of my Key Views in Trading:

Never Expect Anything and Never Predict Anything.

I try to give you some “probabilities” each day based on my own personal analysis and as always…it is your responsibility to due your own due diligence dependent on your own personal views.

This, again, becomes one of those situations of asking the “Wrong Question”.

There is no “Right or Wrong” in Trading, and all we have is our own personal view.

As long as you Adapt to the Price action you are Seeing…then in my opinion…you are on the right Path.

“Hey CVJ!…Is the Lecture over?…Are you going to take our Recess away or give us Detention?…hee hee…”,

say the CVJ Fan Club Guys.

OK OK …my Diatribe is over!…..  

Let’s use the Pound Yen Hourly we have been working with, and also “The Queen”, Cable, to see how the Dollar has handled all of this Action of late…

Commentary and Analysis on the Captures, so give them a Click!

(Post-Time is 3:10 GMT)

As mentioned in the previous Post…we do have probabilities of the Risk-Averse Dollar and Yen motivation continuing in the Markets.

This…due to being a bit “counter-intuitive…does provide opportunity for both Trend Following and Contrarian views, as we do see large swing reversals in Price on more of an Intraday Basis.

Irregardless of which “Side of the Fence” you are on…just maintain your diligence and be selective.

It will suit you well in the end.

Hello to All !

Let’s check in with the Pound Yen and Euro Yen, and see where we have some in the last 12 hours since our last Post.

We are largely consolidating here on both Pairs, according to our Hourly views.

As always…when we see this type of Price action… building of energy increases for a Break out of the clustering behavior.

 Commentary on the Captures, so be sure to Click!…and our Post-Time is 15:30 GMT.

So…let’s see where we move here…Retracements on both of these Units is definitely due…

Of course… we do not expect anything …so be sure to allow your Eyes to lead you…and do not just dive in somewhere “Head First!”