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Risk Aversion Continues to Roll Over the Euro and the Pound

Posted on January 13, 2009 at 22:16 in Market Analysis by Tim Salem

 

Happy Wednesday Everyone!

Our Dollar and Yen “Strength Match” rolls on with even more persistent Price action!

Today and Tomorrow we will have a look at the Euro Dollar and Pound Dollar examples, and see just how persistently strong the U.S. Dollar was against these two most-liquid of Currency Units!

Risk Aversion continues and a suprising narrowing of the U.S. Trade Deficit did nothing to curb the fallout with these two Pairs!

But first…how about a small recap of yesterday’s Examples?

Yesterday with our Aussie and Euro Yen…our projected target magnet areas were reached with the .6600 handle reached on Aussie, and our Euro Yen Bear Flag formation area at 118.00, respectively.

Here are the EXACT Charts from yesterday…the only difference being Price progression.

(I do this to simply emphasize my “I am not a Predictor!” viewpoint I have mentioned several times in the past.

I try to be a specific as possible by using probabilities and tendency… without being “certain” of anything….)

 

(Post-Time is 3:15 GMT)

 

(click once for the captures)

 

 

 

 

OK…onto to the Euro and the Pound!

 

Our Euro certainly had major depreciation since we last visited Him a week ago or so…and the poor Queen!

“The Poor Poor QUEEN!”, …I can hear the CVJ Guys lament…

( I can see my Premium friend, Ray…and friend, fellow Blogger, and fine Trader Phil Newton, shedding a tear already…)

We have spent quite a bit of time rescuing Her from the English Channel in Her battle with the Euro…and lately the Trans-Atlantic “Cable” that gave Her the nickname is certainly beginning to fray!

 

So let’s take a look at Pound Dollar, and then tomorrow…we will hit the Euro Dollar just ahead of the ECB Interest Rate Meeting Thursday.

 

 Here we are on the Daily…

 

 

 

 While we are staging a corrective Retracement here…it is clear the Macro-Sentiment here is quite Bearish.

Our view for “both sides of the fence” is to “Proceed With Caution!”

We do have “Basing”-type behavior here on the Daily, and if you are bullish, you have missed your Contrarian opportunity to Buy into the retracement.

Patience is Key…in that appreciation to Resistance may bring a rapid drop back to Support where you may have your opportunity with a significant “bounce”.

In any event…Please DO NOT chase this trade!

If your view is bearish…then Patience is also Key here..as you need a nice and solid retracement here for a significant sell into strength to be in concert with the Macro-Downtrend.

Clearing the 1.48 Resistance is needed…and then you wish to observe how Price “behaves” at this area…

Do we simply shoot right through and continue north?… or do we “hover and float” around this area?

This will assist you in making a well-informed decision to Sell at this Level.

 

DISCLAIMER:

( My thoughts are based on the criteria of a Daily view …so the Intraday folks may see shorter-term relevant views here…)

 

Let’s check in later in the day for an Update and see if the Dollar will prevail… or if the Queen has had enough and pummels Her friend, the Yankee Dollar!

;-)

 

 

 

Tags: EUR/USD, euro, GBP/USD, pound, probability, resistance, retracement, risk, support, tendency, U.K., United Kingdom

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