Greetings again, Everyone for this week’s final Update!

Our Dollar (and Yen) strength overall continued to build with the release of the worse United States Gross Domestic Product Data Points in about 25 years… although this “catalyst” may have been tempered just slightly by minuscule “positive” numbers concerning “slight” ( and I emphasize slight…) Expansion in the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Let’s have a look at the USD/CAD and the EUR/USD from a couple days back, and see to what extent Dollar strength prevailed…

Here are the Hourlies of both… and then we will check in with Dollar Yen and the Yen Crosses from our earlier Post.

Commentary is on the Charts, so be sure to give them each a Click, and Post-Time is 16:00 GMT.

 ( Here is the Yen as of 18:20 GMT… I inadvertently loaded last Update’s Chart… )

There we have it for this week!

Now… it will be very interesting to see where we Close later in the day…as additional taking of “Profit off of the proverbial Table” would not be surprising.

We will certainly check in on Sunday for the Sydney Open ( my time) and see where we are…

Gaps would not surprise me this weekend either…considering possible Blocks of After-Market Weekend Oder Flow.

Have a fine weekend everyone, and see you then!

Greetings Everyone for our next Update!

Our “Transitive Rollover” thought from my earlier Post does come to fruition, and can be seen in the USD/JPY… although much deeper in the Yen Crosses.

With slightly better-than-expected Data concerning Unemployment Figures, general profit-taking after significant appreciation all week, and Key levels in play… the Yen has taken a nice “Retracement Rest” in the 8 hours since out last Post.

Here is the USD/JPY back on the Hourly… where we are resting on Support…although not as deep as our 38.2% Fibonacci Confluence/Cluster…

Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 11:00 GMT.

The EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY show this activity with greater pronouncement, and let’s check the Hourlies here as well, and notice our Daily Channels are coming back into view.

We have U.S. GDP, as well as other Data Points on the way… so we will certainly check in again after the NY Open.

We need to see how the Dollar deals with it’s “fleeting Phone Call” with its’ former “Risk Aversion Brother”, the Yen… as it temporarily gets back in line with the Dollar in terms of relative strength.

( Of course… the CVJ Fan Club Guys think they just talked about Spring Training Baseball… )

Happy Friday Everyone!

 Post-Time is a bit early tonight… at 2:20 GMT… so I may cover some of what I like to call “Transitive Rollover” with the Yen Unit itself.

 Concerning our “Momentum Superstar of the Week”… USD/JPY… it should be no surprise here that we are beginning a momentum-based corrective retracement here…. hence the “Transitive Rollover” term.

We see this when the Markets simply “flow” into each other, and begin corrective gestures from Session to Session.

With the complete “unwinding” of the Yen as a “Risk Aversion Unit”… the beautiful Double-Bottom “W” Formation continues along… with Parity at the massive psychological and round number Level of “100.00″ in clear sight.

In accordance with the “integrity” of this Uptrend… Fractal corrective moves are always required.

Technically, we have significantly breached our Daily Uptrend Channel, although… in my personal view…our Magenta Channel is still valid for retracement reference… so it will remain for now.

Give the Captures a Click, as always…

Down on the shorter-term Hourly… these “potential” retracements levels come into view and we have a 38.2% Confluence Fibonacci Area that may come into view.

Let’s check back in during the London/European Session and see if our retracement levels actually came to fruition.

We will get back to the two “main” Yen Crosses as well… as we are seeing my “Transitive Rollover” idea there as well…so we will cover them in a few hours with the next Update!

Greetings Again!

The Dollar strengthens as a  Risk Aversion Catalyst once again… and this certainly is not surprising for us in a myriad of ways!

The U.S. Data Points with Durable Goods, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, and New Home Sales clock in far weaker than general Consensus, and the Dollar takes advantage to attempt resumption of overall Trends.

Without having its’ “Risk Aversion Brother”, the Yen, to pick up some of the weight… the Dollar has and will increasingly be affected in this manner… at least in the near to medium-term.

Here is our Euro friend on the Hourly…

Give It a Click, and Post-Time is 16:00 GMT.

I will be back later, as well, with the U.S./Asian Overlap “rollover” Session and the USD/JPY Pair.

Since this Unit appears to be one of our few “Movers” today…let’s see where we progress with it as we move along.

Greeting again, Everyone!

Our “muted” Price Action Climate today continues to spread and “bleed out” to most Currency Units today, and this tells us…in general…we are “Re-Setting the Chessboard”, for lack of a better Analogy.

As is usually the case with large Macro -Paradigm shifts… a “wave” of Consolidation and Continuation comes over the Markets as we look for Catalysts in finding decisive directionality.

Our old friends, the Yen Crosses… in similar fashion to the Loonie and Crude Oil from our overnight Post… are no different here on the larger Views.

The Dailies of Pound Yen and Euro Yen illustrate this nicely.

 While both still are in Macro-Downtrends… we are seeing some “Ranging and Basing” Areas.

( On the higher Time-Cycles, we are seeing subtle “appreciation” of Price…in which a Selling into Strength View would be appropriate in terms of these larger Downtrends. )

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 12:15 GMT.

Now… with the EUR/USD fighting the 1.2750/1.2800 Resistance Areas…, poor Data Points out of the EuroZone,  and Mervyn King speaking in London… we may see a Catalyst soon with all of the U.S. Data Points to emerge.

Lately…with the Equities Markets of the last few days “loosely leading” Price Action… we shall see if any of the directional strength will be sustainable.

So… I will be back for another Update with you after the NY Open and Data Points come into play to see where we fair… and Caution is advisable here as we have all of this “building of Energy” everywhere…

Happy Thursday to All !

When we last had a visit with USD/CAD… we were hovering on the Weekly Uptrend Line of our Symmetrical Triangle…. and guess what???… 6 days later… we are still  hovering in the same Area!

Crude Oil maintains a “coupling Correlation” with the Canadian Dollar only in this regard… A Range-Bound directionality that is losing inertia and decreasing volatility…. ( A Scenario that Options Traders live for…).

“CVJ!… We have an idea to get the Loonie to breakout of it’s Triangle!… How about if we go to a Toronto Blue Jays Spring Training Game!!! “  , the CVJ Fan Club Guys say…

“You guys will do anything to get to a Game, won’t you!”, I say…  

Seriously… the Loonie is, indeed, still coiling and building energy for an inevitable Breakout of the Weekly/Daily Formation we have here.

Click for the Captures, as always… and Post-Time tonight for me is 2:50 GMT.

In my view… I will not approach the USD/CAD until we have a Catalyst to break this large Triangle formation…irregardless of directionality.

Of course… this is solely your choice… but for me…as I hold longer-term views here… I will find opportunity elsewhere until Price reveals itself to me…..

Now… we can analyze this to death… and actually force ourselves to see something … but in my personal view… this is an attempt in futility.

In the same fashion that we try to aspire to never ever force a Trade… we certianly should not force an “opportunity” that does not have logical and high probability.

This is one of the finest Lessons to Master in Trading.

How about Crude Oil?… any possibilities here?

Let’s pull the Daily and take a look…

Our April 2009 Futures Contract here is in roughly the same position as the Loonie above!

So where do we go from here?… what do we do?

We wait.

Period.

Patience… as we all know and try to work on all the time… is one of the essential KEYS of long-term success and consistency in this Industry.

While my Post to start the day is a bit “uneventful”… I hope it raises some contemplation for you and proves to be of some benefit.

So… we move onto the next Update and look elsewhere for opportunity!

Remember… As One Door Closes… Another Will Open.

Greetings!

( I apologize, Everyone!… I realized I had the Gold Capture twice… so the Euro is here and all is well…. Post-Time for the Euro Capture now is 17:35 GMT )

I apologize for my “lateness” with an Update…. but overall… not a whole lot of movement in general, which is usually the case with Speeches and Rhetoric and such, as the Markets need time to “digest” the information.

( Plus… I’m a little “distracted” with the Opening Day of Cactus League Spring Training Baseball !… hee hee…. )

Our Risk-Aversion Friend… the Dollar… is still rolling along… despite some decent Euro strength overall this week.

Remember Sunday night when I opened the Blog with the Euro having Bearish Momentum in the larger View?… I still hold my View here.

The “increased”  Fractal nature of both of EUR/USD and Gold provides validity for our ranging sideways action on the IntraDay Level..

The “stairstepping” nature… the building of “baby Flags and Pennants” and the like with Price Action defines this type of “Climate”.

Let’s continue with the Hourly View we have been with all week, and also check on Gold.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 14:30 GMT.

Next up with our “Theme” is Crude Oil and our Canadian Dollar from last week… we can check in after the Oil Inventory Report and see where the Loonie has been since our visit last Friday, as we wish to see the “Dollar Side of the Equation”… and the CAD” Side as well for Crude….

Greetings for Mid-Week Everyone!

As we usually see with “natural” Market behavior… we are seeing some “resting”…”continuation”…”consolidation”.. and every other descriptor we can think of after we see such stout Momentum-driven Directionality!

Our “Risk-Averse” Friend, the Dollar, is handling the job just fine!… now that his “Partner-in Crime”, the Yen… has broken away for another position as a Speed Bump…. hee hee hee…. 

A unique situation with a variety of factors with USD/JPY bring us “counter-intuitive” Price Action… as the Dollar continues to dominate its’ “Old Friend”.

In keeping with our “Theme” this week… the Dollar aspects of the overall Picture are resting on some Commentary of Ben Bernanke in the Long-Term, and conflict with this comes the absolutely worse Consumer Confidence on record… and “same old, same old” News on the Case/Shiller Housing Index.

“So what’s the story then, CVJ?… Dollar Yen and the Dollar itself continues to hold its’ strength?… even with all that bad Data?” , the CVJ Fan Club Guys ponder…

“Wow!, I say… “You three Market Misfits are actually asking me something constructive? … I am shocked… SHOCKED, I say!”     

 Seriously… we know that overall Fundamental factors are still being largely ignored… and our lack of any “real normal” Correlations simply are non-existent.

In my personal view… we are still really dealing with a Paradigm Shift in Sentiment and Price Action, as I have been referring to the past few Posts.

Here are the Hourly Views of both Euro and Gold… so give the Captures a Click… and Post-Time tonight is about 2:40 GMT.

Gold corrected a good $35.00 yesterday finding Support around $961.00.

We will certainly revisit these two… and check on Dollar Yen for the next Post.

Later… we will add the Yen Crosses and Crude Oil into the fray in keeping with our “Theme” this week.

We will see if Obama’s rhetoric shows itself in any fashion or thoughts in the Markets as we move through the evening.

Hi All !

Our final Update of the day brings us with no real surprises here…

U.S. Consumer Confidence clocks in with negative Sentiment at 25.0…clearly below Consensus…and Big Ben up on the Hill trying to put it all together!

“Woohoo!… We are saved now!” ,  the CVJ Guys say…

No response from me here…so let’s move on with our Update, shall we!  

Another look at Dollar Yen really says it all here on the Hourly…

While we have breached significant levels… a correction may be looming on the horizon, simply due to such a quick Bullish Momentum drive.

Give the Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 16.00 GMT.

Euro, on the other hand, is now into a continuation/consolidation Mode after a nice Reversal off it’s recent Rally… and is ranging between the lower 1.27’s-1.28’s Areas.

Gold…. is in even more of a Consolidation Mode… as it continues with plenty of “Safe-Haven” Inflows overall.

We do have some Price correction taking place as of this writing… but this in no way invalidates the Appreciation we have seen of late… in my personal view.

Not too much Commentary for this pre-London/European Close and Bernanke on the Hill… as in these cases… we often see “muted” activity until the “Rhetoric” gets digested…. or simply ignored.

I will be back with you this evening, and we will see where we have progressed as we move into the Asian Session later in the day!

Greetings !

Our “Turning of the Tide” does, indeed, takes place coming off of our last Post about 10 hours ago!

The Dollar Yen rolls on and breaks the Hourly Pennant north, breaching Major Resistance on it’s way to the 96.00 Handle.

The Yen Crosses are actually “directionally correlated” now with Dollar Yen… as the Yen itself continues to unwind, and brings us Hourly Double-Top formations….and with Yen weakness… these may simply may blow through resembling fractal Bull Flags.

The Yen unwinding from Risk Aversion and “Safe-Haven” Status is significant here… and when we begin to see these subtle changes in long-term correlations…a Paradigm Shift is upon us.

Translation: There is Blood In The Water…    

Gold simply continues to consolidate… remember… it has to “digest” all of it’s Safe-Haven Nutrients as the Yen flows into it, the Dollar, and literally everything else on the kitchen table! 

Here is our Daily and Hourly View of USD/JPY… Give them a Click, and Post-Time is 10:20 GMT.

Observe Price Action here as we are “caught” in this Range… so if your view is Bearish… you may see an opportunity if we get to .9600 to “Fade” the Level.

If you are Bullish… you will wait for the exact “Fade” above and observe the Correcton from there.

With the unwinding of the Yen… there is no need to chase this Trade… or any trade for that matter!

Remember to hold your Patience here, and as I always say…

Price will lead You to where It wants you to be.

Let’s pull our Euro and Gold back into the mix for the next Update, in keeping with our “Week-Long Theme” here… considering the Euro ignored atrocious IFO Data Points and continued its’ Appreciation.