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Bearish Sentiment Becoming Evident on EUR/USD and GBP/USD

Posted on March 4, 2009 at 22:13 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem

 

Happy Central Bank Day, Everyone!

We embark on the noted Key Interest Rate Decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England today… with Consensus clocking in at a .50 basis-point Cut for both Central Banks from 2.00% to 1.50% for the ECB…, and 1.00% to .50% for the BoE.

Now if I close my eyes… I would swear we are speaking of the Federal Reserve a couple months back… away we go!

So… with all the Risk Aversion…Fear…Uncertainty… and Collateral Damage we have seen lately with both of these Economies… where will these Cuts leave us in terms of their respective Currency Units?

Well… of course I do not know! … but I have a “highly probable” idea…

( Remember one of my very first Posts on the Blog?  I said I am like Sgt. Schultz from the 1960’s American WWII comedy, Hogan’s Heroes…. his famous line was ” I know nothing… Nothing! “… )       ;-)

In my personal view…  These Consensus Rate Cuts are already Priced-In to the Markets…hence any previous Bullish Momentum we have seen (yesterday) did not hold any Intrinsic Value to the Euro and The Queen themselves.

I attribute the Price Appreciation in the Euro Dollar and Pound Dollar to the “Dollar” side of these Units and simple Dollar weakness…. as the Inverse relationship of the Dollar to stronger U.S. Equities has been in Play.

So what do the Charts have to say right now?… Let’s have a peek.

Here are the Hourlies of both Units, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time tonight for me is about 3:15 GMT.

 

 

 

Please be mindful of my “Time-Cycle” of Thought here… I am speaking purely in the immediate Near-Term with Price Action if the Rate Decisions are in line with Consensus.

( Many of you know I personally hold Longer-Term Views… so it would be in my favor to see these two Units appreciate with significance after their Bearish Sentiment directionality has worked through… for a Selling-into-Strength opportunity. )

I will be back with you after the Announcements and accompanying Statements, as well as other Data Points… so we may simply see where all of the “Digestion” has taken us!

Remain Cautious… and no one ever said you have to take a Position here or at any time!

Use your Skills and adhere to your Risk Profile and Trading Style.

;-)

 

 

 

Tags: Bank of England, bearish, bullish, Cable, chart formation, currency, England, EUR/USD, euro, Europe, European Central Bank, Fiber, Gartley, GBP/USD, interest rate, pound, sentiment, U.K.

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