Posted on April 30, 2009 at 21:43 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Happy Friday, Everyone!

We end the Week with the Institutional Entities taking severe “End Of-Month” Profit-Taking to Balance the Books, as the say…

The onslaught of U.S. Data basically can be summed up in a “Mixed Reaction” Perspective, as Dollar Strength was largely limited to the Dollar Yen and Correlated-Momentum to the Yen Itself with the Crosses.

As the Majors found Appreciation, they took their “Cousin Cross-Rates” with them… snapping the Safe-Haven Status of the “Two Friends”, Dollar and Yen.

We pick up this Evening with The Queen…Cable… Dollar Yen, and the Aussie Yen as fine Illustrations of the Volatility Continuation of Late…

 

Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.

 

 

GBP/USD is still dealing with the Highly-Probable ”True Reasoning” it cannot get through the coveted Massive 1.500 Figure…

Options Barriers Options Barriers… and that’s right!… Everyone say it with Me!…

OPTIONS BARRIERS!!!

Of course, in all Seriousness, this is simply Probability in my View… as We really do not know for sure… but usually in cases like this where we have multiple attempts at such “Psychological” Resistance within a Unit… the Options Barriers are usually present, as the Area is Well-Defended by Institutional Agendas.

 

 

 

Dollar Yen is finally seeing some Corrective Behavior after the Yen receives a severe Pummeling from the Dollar all Day long… and think of it… These Two are “Risk-Aversion Best Friends !”

What is the World coming To ???… hee hee hee…   ;-)

 

 

 

Aussie Yen also takes the Yen sailing off of the Sydney Beaches… and simply leaves Him out there to Drown!…

He MAY  be finding his way back to Shore, though…    :-)

 

 

 

 

 

It’s Friday… So I thought we all could use a little Comic Relief with my Analogies!

 

 

Please join me for my Final Installment this week of the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report around 7:00 GMT and, of course, I will return for IntraDay Blog Updates throughout the Day!

 

 

( My Apologies for No 16:00 GMT Update yesterday, as my Meeting ran longer than usual…     ;-)

 

 

 


Posted on April 30, 2009 at 6:07 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone!

Our Large Corrective Retracements we spoke of in our “Big” Overnight Post surely have come nowhere to Fruition… as Price across the Majors looks for “tight” Retracements to continue propelling Price further “North”…

Despite poor Unemployment Figures from Germany out of the EuroZone… the Failure to keep the IntraDay High in the Euro is “Technically Correct”… as we look to “Re-Test” the 1.3400 Figure in due time.

“Cluster” Support has slightly given way here… so both Bullish and Bearish Views had and do have “Equal Opportunity” here…

The Bears surely coming off of the Highs that were Tested for a Selling Opportunity… and Bullish Views looking to gain with a potential Buying Opportunity with Observance if we are not involved in the larger Correction.

Failure may then bring our “Larger” Corrective Ideas into View as we move throughout the Day.

Gold still finds Solid Resistance with heavy Congestion and Resistance at the $900.00 Level.

If Correction continues, Gold find the $880’s Support as an Opportunity to Test the Highs once again of the Horizontal Range in this Case…

Here are the Hourly Views of both Units, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary… and Post-Time is 11:10 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I will return for more Updates, as mentioned… as we work through the U.S. Open and the U.S. Equities coming into View in a couple of hours… so we will meet then !

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on April 29, 2009 at 21:41 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Hello, Everyone and Welcome to Thursday!

The whirlwind of IntraDay Volatility is showing no real signs of Easing as more Data Points and Macro-Fundamentals or on the way for the Dollar as we move to the Close of the Week.

PCE, Jobless Claims, and Chicago PMI shall keep us busy in the States, while the EU and the U.K. deal with Unemployment and Housing Prices.

We certainly cannot forget “Our Friends” at the Bank of Japan… as their Interest Rate Decision is due anytime of this Writing…. ( perhaps a Non-Event here since they are deeply expected to Hold… as is usually the case within their recent Macro-Climate…).

 

While we wait for this Bombardment… as if the FOMC, and GDP weren’t enough yesterday…. let us check in on “Our Currency Tour” and see how a couple other Units have handled the latest Market Sentiments and Momentum Activity.

Our Friend, the Canadian Dollar, has surely enjoyed the recent Strength as It has weighed heavily on the U.S. Dollar… although from the Hourly IntraDay Perspective… Correction is, indeed, upon us moving forward.

Here is the daily and Hourly View of the USD/CAD, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

The Pound Yen gives us some Inclination of the Retracement “Potential” of the Yen Itself… which will apply to most Yen Crosses in a sort of “universal” fashion moving forward.

As we always say and observe… Deep Weakness is followed by Corrective Strength and Vice-Versa… No one Single Currency Unit exists in a Vacuum, so the Retracements are necessary as Price moves into a Consolidative Tone.

Here is the Hourly of GBP/JPY with a ”Classic” Fib  Variant Retracement…

  

 

 

 

 

 

As always, please stop by for the 7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective Report”…  as well as continued Updates as The Markets continue to throw Data-Points Firepower our way throughout the Day!

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on April 29, 2009 at 17:41 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

Greetings Everyone!

Another Brief Recap Update with the Federal Reserve holding the Overnight Interest Rate @ the 0% -.25% Range as “Consistent” Sentiment begins to build… despite the Printing Presses still rolling along…     ;-)

The Royal Bank of New Zealand, on the other hand, takes a rather Pro-Active Approach here,  and uses Clear and Firm Rhetoric indicating “No Real Interest” in the Quantitative Easing Model.

Bollard also states that the Central Entity will look into additional Cuts in the future if needed… as the Sentiment here is to stay significantly “Ahead of the Curve” and “On Top of the Situation”.

In my personal View…”Bernanke and Friends” could learn a few things from such a Pro-Active Stance.

The Dollar takes away with clear confidence most Gains the Majors have had here after the FOMC Decision… with significant Corrections, relatively speaking.

Here are the EUR/USD and the NZD/USD for some Illustrations of where we have progressed…

Give the Captures a Click, and no Commentary as to let Price speak for Itself in these two Cases.

Post-Time is 22:45 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

I will return for the “Big” Blog Post for Thursday in a few Hours, and let’s see where we are in the Markets at that point!

 

;-)

 

 

 


Posted on April 29, 2009 at 10:54 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings once again to All!

A Brief Update as we put our Tuxedos and Evening Gowns on for the FOMC Gala Party!…

We have “Muted” Price Action moving forward… as Risk-Aversion has consistently drifted off into the Sunset the last couple of Days.

Fiber and Cable find IntraDay Highs, as does Gold and Crude… even if “Initial Contact” was made in the Immediate-Term.

As expected, Crude Inventories continue to rise and U.S. GDP continues to fall… which fits nicely into our “Longer-Term Thoughts” on the U.S. Economy as a whole.

GDP is such a Major Factor in the “Health” of all Economies… so until some real Stability is seen… we will continue with the various Measures-at-Hand.

Let’s have a look at the Hourly Views of EUR/USD, the Crude June Contract, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average… where we see the overall Appreciation of the past 12 hours nicely.

Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 16:00 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course… we will return for a Post-Update of the FOMC Party… as long as the “CVJ Fan Club Guys” do not act all crazy from the Caviar and Champagne and start dancing on the Tables or something… hee hee hee…    ;-)

 

 

 


Posted on April 29, 2009 at 6:12 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem2 Comments »

 

Greetings again, Everyone!

Dollar weakness continues quietly but consistently as Risk Aversion gives way to Price Corrections in most Markets.

The Euro and Swissy are fine Examples to illustrate this, with clear IntraDay trends as we move closer and closer towards the U.S. GDP Data Points.

While we stillhave the opportunity for “Counter-Intuitive” Dollar Strength moving forward with Negative GDP… the Probability lies at this point with “Normal” Reactions to the Data,considering current Price Directionality on both Units.

 

Here are the Hourly Views of both Units, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 11:10 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I will be back with as the Data plays out and the NYSE Opens to absorb the Activity, and as we move towards the Fed Issues as well!


Posted on April 28, 2009 at 22:26 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings and Welcome to a Busy Wednesday!

We have plenty of “Heavyweight” Data coming today with the EU Consumer Confidence, FMOC and the Fed Interest Rate… as well as U.S. GDP, Crude and Energy Inventories, and plenty of Data later on in Japan. The RBNZ is also “on Base” for their Interest Rate Decision as well…

In my personal opinion… the True “Bellwether” of all of this Macro-Data will be the U.S. Dollar itself!

Risk-Aversion and Uncertainty and fear are still largely looming over us… as well as the ever-present possibility for “Counter-Intuitive” Price action with a stronger Dollar and Yen reaction in the face of “poor” U.S. Data and a “surprise” in Action and Rhetoric out of GDP and the FOMC.

Gold and Crude will be very interesting to observe from the Immediate-Term… as our Correlations have been largely “Absent” of late…

We bring in the Euro, Gold, and Crude to see where we are, and we will certainly re-visit these Three at the “Close of Event Business” later in the Day.

Here are the Hourlies of Fiber and Gold… and we stay with the Daily View on the June Crude Contract in observance of the large Ranging Area.

Give the Captures a Click for Commentary as always… and Post-Time is 3:30 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please join me for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective”, as always, right around 7:00 GMT, and of course… continued Updates throughout the Day as we move along!

:-)

 

 

 


Posted on April 28, 2009 at 17:51 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greetings Again, Everyone!

We look into a Brief Update early in the Asian Session… as the Pacific Dollars and Crosses look to continue with Global Easement of Risk-Aversion today…

We have the Aussie Yen and Kiwi Dollar Hourly Views for an idea of where the Session, in general, may be headed concerning Sentiment.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 23:00 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course… I will be back with you later for the “Big” Blog Post for Wednesday, as we bring the Euro, Gold, and Crude Oil into View this week!

:-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on April 28, 2009 at 10:41 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Greeting again, Everyone… and my apologies for the slight delay!

Our thoughts on Markets Corrections, at lease from the IntraDay View, have come to fruition from our earlier Post overnight.

As is usually the case… Price will move in “Waves” and will not remain in constant ”Uni-Directionality” moving forward.

Corrections and Retracements are a healthy part of overall “Sentiment” and the recent Risk-Averse behavior is no exception.

We continue to “Tour” the Units as we move closer and closer to the U.S. GDP, Overnight Interest Rate Decision, and the FMOC Minutes.

We bring into View the USD/JPY, EUR/USD, and the NZD/JPY for a “Cross-Section” of Sentiment moving throughout the evening and our Day so far…

Here are the Hourly Captures, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 15:45 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I will be with you again a bit earlier for the Asian-Pacific Session Opening , as well as the standard “larger” overnight Blog Entry for tomorrow!

See all of you soon, and thanks, as always, for joining me throughout the each and everyday!

;-)

 

 

 

 


Posted on April 27, 2009 at 22:07 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim SalemNo Comments »

 

Welcome to Tuesday, Everyone!

With Risk-Aversion surely looking to continue in the Immediate-Term… the Global Swine Flu Health Rhetoric was deeply digested in the markets Sunday and Monday.

As with most “Major Macro-Events”… once the Markets have them Identified and Processed”, if you will… Price often looks to lead its’ own way and find some semblance of Balance moving forward.

As with All Events, Data, Rhetoric, Criteria, what have you… Uni-Directionality does not continue Indefinitely.

We look now at the slight Consolidating and Easing Factors of most Units moving through the Asian-Pacific Sector  and into our Day today… and what we are finding is Price Behavior and Sentiment looking to “Key and Relevant Levels” within the Units Themselves.

The ECB and Trichet have finally joined the Party with solid Rhetoric on Quantitative Easing in more of a direct manner, and the FOMC comes to the Table as well later in the week.

These two “Major Macro-Events” may keep Price Action somewhat In Check moving forward… although the Markets are surely loaded with Volatility as we have already observed.

We have started the week largely with the Euro, so let’s see where we are with it’s “Inverse Sibling”, USD/CHF… as well as checking in with The Queen and Aussie Yen as well.

Here are the Hourlies of The Swissy and The Queen, and the Daily of the Aussie Yen… as we find “potential” Levels of Retracement in working with these IntraDay Downtrends.

Give the Captures a Click for Commentary, and Post-Time is 3:10 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

As always, please join me for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report @7:00 GMT in the “Technical Analysis Reports” Tab of the Technical Section!

We will also have plenty of Updates moving forward as we progress throughout our Day!

:-)

 

 

 

Older posts »