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NFP To Be Counter-Intuitive with Dollar Strength?… Again?

Posted on April 2, 2009 at 20:49 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem

 

Greetings, Everyone and welcome to our Monthly Day of Friday Follies!

As we all know…the most volatile and literally most important Data Point for our Foreign Exchange concerns comes tomorrow with the March 2009 Non-Farm Payrolls Data.

While the Labor Market in the U.S. is obviously weak… ( even those “Genius” friends of mine, the CVJ Fan Club Guys,  know this…hee hee hee …..),  we may be in store for deeply negative losses with a Concensus and “Rhetoric” out there of a -660K Data Point… while a staggering 700K Loss to enter The Books certainly is possible!

With the latest round of Pessimism and Dire Straits with Employment in the U.S. ( and around the world, for that matter…),  Dollar and Yen Strength may surely return in the Climate if NFP comes out “Weak” is simply due to the Safe-Haven Inflows coming back into the Dollar… hence its’ Low-Yielding Properties with add Strength here…as well as with it’s “Brother”, The Yen.

We have noticed several instances where all of these Factors will correlate and unwind in and out of each other, and NFP will be no different within the current Enviroment.

“Counter-Intuition” is back from Vacation!

As I always do on this Day… some Caveats to mention.

I do not personally work with this Report and specific Data Release… and I do not know many Professional and Seasoned Traders who do.

I will certainly observe the Data and be aware of any Open Positions I may (and do) have… but “Execution” of a Position exclusively out of NFP is not conducive to my “Style” of Work.

Another aspect for me is I tend to move away from “Primary” Dollar-Related Pairs during this time for additional Protective Risk Exposure… but in this case… let’s stick with our GBP/USD and AUD/USD Units since we have been working with them lately here in the Blog.

Here are the Hourly Views again to see where we have progressed, so give the Captures a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is about 1:50 GMT.

 

 

 

 

Keep in mind we simply may continue to have “Muted” Price Action going forward… and I will be with you for another Blog Update soon after the “Technical Perspectives of the Majors” Report  at 7:00 GMT!

:-)

 

 

 

Tags: AUD/USD, Data, employment, GBP/USD, jobs, nfp, NOn-Farm Payrolls

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