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AUD/USD and USD/JPY On Deck with Central Bank Rates

Posted on April 6, 2009 at 21:02 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem

 

Greetings, Everyone and welcome to Tuesday!

Our Central Bank Activity we spoke of begins “tentatively” as of this writing for the Bank of Japan, where Consensus has the BoJ expecting to Hold Rates @ 0.10% once again… as it has for the First Quarter of 2009.

There really is nowhere for the BoJ to move and leverage at this point, although, a subtle “Adoption” of a “Wait and See” Policy is in View.

Despite the horrific Tankan Survey… some overall “Pessimism” in the Japanese Climate may be beginning to moderate and ease a bit moving forward, since there is “Rhetoric” of NOT introducing any new Policy or Criteria as Prime Minister Aso’s Stimulus Plan is to be looked into.

The Reserve Bank of Australia and its’ Decision has a little more “Heat” added to it… as there is unclear Consensus as to whether the RBA will Hold… or indeed, Cut the Overnight Rate by 0.50% bps, respectively.

The KEY here is that Quantitative Easing has not been at the forefront of the RBA’s Intentions… as they are not at, nor hovering around, “0″%, … as are most Global Central Entities.

The current 3.25% Rate gives the Australian Economy “Solo Status” in being literally “Recession-Free” in the Global Climate… and with a possible 3rd rollout of a Stimulus Package… there surely is plenty of Liquidity to go around.

Those “Indecisive Thoughts” do appear when we think of the poor Data Points… as Retail Sales, GDP, Unemployment and such all place “Heavy Weight” on the Economy Itself.

A stronger Dollar of late ( in general ), and the Depreciation in Gold have not neccessarily harmed the Economy… but they surely have provided some “Collateral Damage” that has to be contended with.

With all of the Macro-Fundamental Introductions aside… let’s take a relatively ”Clean” look at the Daily Time-Cycles of these two Units.

( We will drill down as the Rate Decisions provide “Catalysts” for Momentum as we move forward in our next Update…)

Post-Time is 2:00 GMT, and give the Captures a Click, as always!

 

 

 

 

( Please be mindful that we have no idea with any true Certainty  of what will transpire with these Decisions or with consequential Price Action… so we must simply be prepared to REACT, as is always the case. )

Surely we will check in with an Update here with the Aussie and Dollar Yen… and We will do so immediately after the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” at right around 7:00 GMT.

See you then!

;-)

 

 

 

Tags: AUD/USD, Australia, central bank, interest rate, Japan, quantitative easing, USD/JPY

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