Welcome to Wednesday!

We have a slight Paradigm Shift in Market Sentiment with the gradual but Marked Strength of the Dollar and the Yen of late…

Equities are down globally, so we have seen flight into the “Low-Yielders” of the Dollar and Yen… as Gold and Crude Oil remain Bearish in Sentiment… but largely Range-Bound on the Macro Time-Cycles.

We have not visited our “Commodity Cousins” in quite some time, so we will have a look at their Weakness lately and see where we are.

OK… You all know I am going to mention this, so I might as well get it over with…

While we have had some “Positivity” in many areas of ALL Markets, I myself  still subscribe to a largely “Bear Market Rally” Perspective.

“CVJ!… What’s the story with your “Bear Market Rally” and “Dead Cat Bounce” Ideas?… What… are they your new favorite Metaphors now?…. You cannot come up with anything more original than that, and say it over and over and over again?… You remind us of our Wives! “,  the CVJ Fan Club Guys say.

“Well, Boys… The Concepts have been accurate here and there… so the Descriptor fits.”, I say.

“The comment about your Wives… well… I will begin planning your Funerals now…”

( I thought we sent those guys to another Protest somewhere?… hee hee hee…     

Seriously… with Oil Inventories continuing to pile up around the world, a clear Bearish View on Crude is understandable, to say the least.

The KEY, in my personal view,  is the Uncertainty of Traders either being “Ahead of… or Behind… The Curve”, as they say.

With some glimmers of hope in Data Points on a true Macro-Level… many are concerned that if any sort of “TRUE” Recovery is in sight… that they get themselves positioned well to have clear advantage when we do see significant Appreciation in the Price of Crude in the Macro-View.

…And yes… Crude WILL Appreciate.

I do not know when… but it Will. 

Gold, on the other hand, is still in its’ own Unique Place… as it has been from the Dawn of Man:

Our only “TRUE” Currency.

While our “Safe-Haven” Concepts have pulled back a bit in the Immediate-Term… Gold has reasonable “Arguments” for whichever “Side of the Fence” you may be on.

Bullish Views will look to the pending Inflationary concerns with all of the “Quantitative Easing” and Stimulus going on around the Globe.

Bearish Views simply have to look at last week’s G20… where we heard “Rhetoric” about the International Monetary Fund possibly selling off it’s own Gold Reserves. ( The IMF is reportedly the 3rd largest Holder of Gold…).

Let’s take a look at what is going on with my Larger Views, and then we will drill down for my IntraDay Friends, as always, during our next Post during the European Session.

Here are the Monthly Views of Gold and the May Crude Futures Contract, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is 1:15 GMT.

( Of course, many of you do not work with these two Products since I refer to them quite a bit on the Blog… although please try to be mindful of them for additional “insight” into the Dollar and other InterMarket Correlations. )

I will be with you at 7:00 GMT for the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” and we will also check some other Units for you as well during our next Update!