Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to a New Week!

We have seen significant Trending Environments around the Currency Markets as a Wave of Risk Appetite has all but swallowed our ” Low-Yielding Safe Haven Friends”, The Dollar and The Yen lately.

A stronger Dow and Equities Climate are currently correlating… as well as stronger Gold, Oil, and most Major Commodity Complexes.

On the Treasuries/Yields Front… the deep Sell-Off here must have awakened someone in Washington… the question remains if any action will be taken there.

The 10-Year Note is almost at 4%, which certainly should wake up The Fed… since Yields at these levels make Mortgage Rates rise and halt Refinancing… hence will keep away the Consumer from the Housing Market, relatively speaking.

Along with this “InterMarket” Behavior in picking up from our Conversation from our last Post… we have The Queen and the Swissy in “Corrective Mode” in early Sydney Trading as well.

Let’s have a look and see where we are… and here are the Captures of GBP/USD and USD/CHF, so give them a Click for Commentary and Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 00:45 GMT.

 The “Weight and Magnitude” of these Corrections ( if they truly materialize…) will be Key to the overall Continuation of these Trends.

( My personal Longer-Term Viewssee 1.6400 on The Queen and 1.0500 on The Swissy… but you know me and my Love to the Weeklies…      

We will certainly check on these as we move forward, and in our next Blog Update immediately after the “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report around 6:30/7:00 GMT.

It will be Key to see if these “Corrective Sentiments” really have any “Legs”… or if we are simply working through more Accumulation and Continuation.

Greetings, Everyone and Happy Sunday!

Writing-Time for me in Phoenix is 8:45 A.M… so 15:45 GMT.

Yes… it is already 4000 Degrees here for those who are wondering… Seriously… it is still somewhat “Seasonal” here, although ask me in two weeks and I will tell you how long it took my Eggs to fry on the Asphalt…..       

Most of You are familiar now with my preference for “Casting a Wider Net” in Currency Unit Time-Cycles, and without getting into the specific Criteria as it has been mentioned several times before… the “True” Bottom Line is this:

It simply Works for Me.

The Daily and Weekly and Monthly Views were Cycles I had gravitated to back in 1997 when I first began learning and working with Equities… so once I “transitioned” into Currencies, they simply “Naturally” followed.

This Process came really from how my Creative Work has progressed with Art and Music.

Composing and Painting really are a Process of “Building and Tearing Down and Re-Building” what has come and gone before.

Is Trading… when we really think about it… any different?

We look out to a Monthly Chart… check the “Character” of price… Trending, Ranging, and Consolidating Aspects… Speed and Momentum… and move to a “Faster” Cycle.

This is the same Process irregardless of your “Style” of Work… we always need to “Get our Bearings” and have Points of Reference.

As we know… the Concept of doing and acting in a purely “Arbitrary” Manner is Deadly in Trading.

We do not take the Boat out onto the Water with spontaneous Randomness… as we do not just “Jump” into a Position without knowing where we are.

Another aspect that is of particular Focus for me is InterMarket Analysis.

This also falls “In Line” with our Wider View… since Observation and Analysis with other Markets is deeply relevant to our Concerns in the Foreign Exchange World.

Our Correlations seem to be “Constant and Consistent” overall… the EUR/USD-USD/CHF Relationship… The Gold and Oil “Inversion” with the U.S. Dollar… The Equity Indices Correlations with the Yen Crosses the last couple of years… and let’s not forget about perhaps the most “Important and Too-Often Overlooked” Correlation we have in FX… The Dollar Index.

We know this is not the Case.

These Correlations are, in fact, “Constantly and Consistently” changing and coupling and winding and wrapping around each other all of the time.

We can use this to our Advantage and hopefully often do.

They belong right along with our “Wider Views” Toolbox next to our various Chart Time-Frames, Indicators, Oscillators, and every other Tool we have at our Disposal.

Try to be mindful of these Things in your own Work…

Give them an Opportunity to learn from…

After all… When you look at the Window… you do not just look at the Grass in your Yard…

But the Whole View of Your Neighborhood.

Greetings, Everyone and Happy Saturday!

I finally made it!…

Of course, after my brief Note yesterday, it would be my now-infamous Murphy’s Law Analogy…

The minute something is mentioned or posted or completed… Something Else comes up!

Yesterday with my work on The Servers and my Main System… but even more so all this past week with the 7:00 GMT “Currency majors Technical Perspective” Reports!

It seems the second or two after I Post my Analysis… we would have significant Activity which sometimes would alter my deeply Immediate Term Views, but then would come back largely “In-Line” as we moved along.

Nothing Surprising Here in this Example… as This truly is the “Hallmark” of Trading!

All we can do is try to put accurate and reasonably “Logical” Probabilities in our Favor!

Well… this same example with the Technology and the types of “Tools” we use in the Trading World.

Computers will crash… Servers will mysteriously lose and recover Data… Power Outages WILL and DO occur… Network Connections will come and go and Haunt your Soul like that horrible Blind Date you once had… and your Trading Platforms will freeze at the most inopportune time!

It is as if the Powers of Everything Decent and Pure in the World are Against You!… hee hee…

Where’s Superman when we need him???

OK… in all seriousness here… if there is any one Rule about our “Relationships” with Technology in this Industry that came to mind for me yesterday… and several instances in the past… It Is This:

Know how to use your Telephone and CALL YOUR BROKERS!

If there is one simple Commonality I have heard from every Professional and Institutional Trader I personally know and have met… it is This One.

Develop a relationship with someone at the Brokerage Houses that you personally deal with.

It may take some time… but it will be well worth it!

We certainly cannot always depend on Technology to do our Job for Us… and it is surely easy to take It for Granted, isn’t it!

I consider myself rather technologically-minded, as I build my own Computer and Servers… but of course… I am no IT Specialist or Programmer!

So… if you make one additional phone call next week when The Markets open…

Make that Call to your Brokers and Market-Makers.

It will benefit you in the long-run… I can promise You!

Have a fine evening, and I will see you tomorrow!

Greetings, Everyone!

My Apologies for a lack of Updates for the rest of today… I was occupied most of the Day with some Technology concerns and working on my Servers!

I will catch everyone up tomorrow morning, as we get back into our “Thoughts for The Weekend” Ideas!

Please join me then!

Greetings again, Everyone!

After some Data-Point “Digestion”  with U.S. PCE and GDP entering with slightly Negative to Mixed Data Points, most Units were simply continuing Trending Behavior nonetheless.

Even at Writing-Time with U.S. Equity Futures Bidding Higher about 10 minutes before the NYSE Open… we can already see some Macro-Accumulation beginning as Profit-Taking and Institutional Re-Positioning begins with the Weekend and the last Full Trading Day of the Month to “Square the Books”, as it were.

The Queen and Her Friend, The Aussie, simply look to Consolidate slightly, but hold onto their solid underlying Bullish Momentum.

In cases like this… Conventional Fibonacci Variants come into View as we observe the Probabilities of where Price may progress as we move forward.

I stay with the Hourly ”Naked” Captures here, so the Fib Clusters are clear.

Give them a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 13:20 GMT.

“The Battle of The Channel” with EUR/GBP moves along as The Queen continues to weaken a bit here on the Euro Correction.

Let us monitor how continued Institutional Activity affects most Units as we move closer to the London Close with Chicago PMI on the way as well…

Our Fib Retracements Areas may come into View… or may simply be “Too Deep” for today’s Accumulating Price Action that is taking place already!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

Our “Rhetorical” Question from our last Post is surely answered with the “Mini-Breaks” of the Flag/Triangles that we are currently seeing on the EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY.

The “Rotation Effect” on the macro-View is surely In Play here… as slightly positive U.S. Equities finds Continuation into Asia, with additional Major Fuel given by Japan and their strong Industrial Production.

We will surely keep our Eye on the Inflows coming into Japan, as this is surely a “Positive” Boost the the Japanese Economy in the Near-Term… as we mentioned a few hours ago as well.

( I say “Positive”… as the Sentiment is fine overall… but we have the Inverse Correlation… Positive Japanese Indices will equal a weak Yen in this case… )

The European Equities pick up our “Throw the Ball Around the World” Idea, as the FTSE, DAX, and CAC all open in positive territory.

With our current Macro-Correlations “In Proper Order” with Equities and the Yen Crosses… Bullish Sentiment should continue.

We check back in with the Hourlies of all Three Units… but this time with No Commentary and literally “Naked” Captures.

Observe how almost-Identical Price Action is evident here… as the “Uniformity” of Sentiment provides a “Smoothness” that even our “Heavy Friend”, The Euro… is contending with nicely after all that Pressure this week.

Give the Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 7:45 GMT.

Of course… be very Mindful of Corrections here as these Trends look to continue…especially considering the Appreciation we have seen all week long.

It’s the Weekend… and You know what that means!      

The Big Boys are fueling up The Yachts for a little Cruise, so Profit-Taking will surely be Evident as we move forward, and at least leave us in some Continuation of tight little Ranges for the Weekend.

We shall see!

As always, I will return for more Updates as we prepare for the EuroZone CPI, and the U.K. Housing Data Points in a little while, and please have a look for some Immediate-Term Thoughts on The Majors with the just-published “Currency Majors Technical Perspectives”  Report!

I hope to see Everyone Soon!

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to Friday!

Our final Trading Day of the week certainly sees no “Rest for the Weary” as they say… as U.S. GDP, The EuroZone CPI, and plenty of other Data keep Traders busy all the way through until Happy Hour!

With all of the Commotion surrounding U.S. Bond Yields and the infamous “Inflation vs. Deflation” Debate going on here in The States… the Japanese have certainly taken advantage of this situation by the Outflows out of the U.S. and Higher U.S. Bond Yields in the last few days.

This has caused the Yen to “weaken” which may appear as part of our “Counter-Intuition” Menu of Tricks.

BUT…The Key here is what is happening with their OWN Bonds and Yields, as they deal with their falling 10Y Notes by buying up… and “Borrowing” from the Surplus of U.S. Treasuries.

Now..after a Fall for a couple of Days… they may begin to rise on  Rhetoric of a “Dovish” Recovery taking some time in Japan.

The Yen Itself handles this by some Initial Weakness through Thursday… but now simply looks to Stabilize and establish IntraDay Ranges full of Consolidation.

Of course… the Current State of The Yen in the Immediate-Term is resting on some Inherent Strength as Industrial Output in Japan gained significantly… which may play right into our Conversation about Capital Inflows coming through the Sea of Japan Inland for a nice “Breath of Fresh Air” for the Japanese Economy as a whole.

 We check with, in my personal opinion, what are the Three Main Yen Crosses…  EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and AUD/JPY on the Hourly Views to see this “Muted” Action as of Writing-Time.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels and Commentary, and Post-Time is 1:30 GMT.

Be sure to join me in about 5 Hours for our final 6:30/7:00 GMT “Currency Majors Technical Perspective” Report for this Week… and another Blog Update, of course!

See You Then!

Greetings once again, Everyone at the N.Y. Close!

Equities and Indices had a rather decent Day with The Dow right at Dynamic Support at 8403.80… just ahead of the Static Resistance at the 8435/36  Area.

The S&P 500 moves further from that Massive Level of 880, and clocks in with an almost 14-Point Increase at 906.85.

While we would “expect” to see some “Bleedout” from this in Dollar-Related Units… The “Heavy” Euro just cannot escape that 2-Ton Weight on Its back, as Consolidation continues on basically a “Neutral” Session for the Currency Giant.

Here are the Hourly Views of both of these as nice Illustrations of where we are.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels, as significant Commentary is not really needed at this moment.

Post-Time is just a bit past 20:30 GMT.

Please stay tuned as we enter the “Big Blog” Post for tomorrow… as we have United States GDP on the way as the “Big Data Point” on The Calendar….as well as EU CPI and U.K. Housing Data, among others.

We bring in the Yen Crosses for tomorrow’s Post… as we may see some Corrective Sentiment on the way!

Please join me in a few hours!

Greetings Again, to All !

Crude Oil clocks in on the NYMEX with EIA Inventories down 5.4M Barrels, as the Gasoline Inventories “fall off the cliff” by 600K Barrels for the week…. even so… The Black Gold is still at a 6-Month High… and shows no real signs of Deep Correction until the “Coveted” $70.00 Handle is reached.

Our July Futures Contract comes in with a slight 50-Cent Fall… as Bullish Builds will more than likely come in after a bit of Accumulation at Static Resistance of the $64.90’s.

Our Fib Variant Projection remains “On Target” with Accuracy from an IntraDay View… as a “normal” Correction looks to the 63.00/15 “Transitive Rollover” in the Interim.

OPEC has no plans to alter and differentiate Production in the Near-Term… as in Their View… the $70.00 Handle is “Fair Value” at this point.

Both Gold and Crude technically pull out of their Consolidating Ranges, and Gold looks to Accumulate at the Daily Static Resistance at the $963.00 Handle in the Immediate-Term.

For all My Friends out there who know me well by this time, here are the Hourly Views of both, so we can see these Major InterMarket Correlations….    

Our “Inverse” Correlation with both of these is still Back in “Favor”…as The Dollar continues Its Weakness in the Near-Term.

Give the Captures a Click for Levels of Reference here, and Post-Time is right at 15:25 GMT.

Of course… back with you again soon on this “Heavy Data Catalyst” Day!… as we look to U.S. Equities to continue their Correlating Behavior… and as we look to watch my Fingers fall off from all of this Typing today!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

With Durable Goods coming out of the U.S. at a surprising Clip and Surge of  1.9% overall and 0.8% Core, as Initial Jobless Claims fell by about 8K as well.

Once again… a  probable Stability “Ingredient” to add to our List of “Basing and Stabilizing” Improvement in Data.

The USD/JPY is still the “Overnight Star of our Views… as the Unit has carried the Yen Crosses back to Appreciation after some Corrective Activity.

We check back in with “The Battle of The Channel” in EUR/GBP as well…  as The Queen slows Her Swimming against Euro in the past 12 Hours or so…

Here are the IntraDayHourly Captures of both, so give them a Click for Commentary.

Post-Time is just a few minutes after the NYSE Open at 13:45 GMT.

The Dollar Yen appreciates with Significance as the “Bleedout” here should keep the Yen Crosses moving right along… as well as the EUR/USD  in the Immediate-Term.

The Dollar is the “Weaker” of our “Two Risk-Averse Friends”… so we will monitor how this progresses throughout our Day.

The EUR/GBP Unit finds Daily Dynamic Resistance with our L.R. Channel Mid-Line from our March 18thOrigination from the Channel High… with an Appreciative Breach of this Level seeing The Queen continue Her Correction to the Weekly 50% Fib Variant Upleg from October 19th  at .8747/50 Area.

Of course… back with more Updates on this busy Data Point “Catalyst” Day…along with OPEC and Crude inventories ( delayed from yesterday’s normal Routine… ) so please join me as always!