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Markets Prepare Levels Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

Posted on June 4, 2009 at 19:19 in Commentary, Market Analysis by Tim Salem

 

Greetings, Everyone and Welcome to NFP Friday!

The historical “Fundamental Benchmark” of the Currency Markets is upon us once again… with Consensus calling for slight Improvement in the Data Release.

After ADP comes in at a slightly negative -7000 Clip off of Consensus… Unemployment Claims, Unit Labor Costs, and Non-Farm Productivity all cam “In Line” with Consensus yesterday… giving a “Tempered View” to NFP tomorrow as a whole.

A “Neutrality” if you will… concerning the Data Itself.

Of course… with a Consensus tomorrow of a “slightly-improved” - 520K over last month’s -539K Actual… we hear Rhetoric of Moderation in The Employment Sector as a Whole in consideration of all the various Data Points.

We have a resurgence of Risk Appetite in the Near-Term Climate with no real “Logic” to cease the overall Dollar Sell-Off…irregardless of the Employment Sector here… despite how Crucial and Massive it is in accordance with our Overall Economic “Health”.

As they say… We have much “Bigger Fish To Fry”…     ;-)

In my personal View…  One of the Main Aspects fueling The Dollar Sentiment being Out of favor is the continual Rhetoric of China moving out of Dollar-Back Assets and working in their own Native Currency…. but we will leave this Topic for another Day, my Friends!      ;-)

 

We are still in Larger Macro-Ranges here Across the Currency Units… despite the Volatility yesterday as tThe  Majors gained..then Consolidated against The Dollar.

We check in with USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, and EUR/USD as we move into the Asian-Pacific Sectors.

Dollar Yen gives a Clue to the varying Depth of Risk Appetite, as The Dollar rallies in an IntraDay Uptrend Channel, as a New “Transitive Rollover” from Resistance to Support develops at the 96.60’s Static Support.

The past few days of Accumulation has been compensated for, as Price looks to see the 97.20’s in the Near-Term and if It Holds… a Reach to the 97.80’s/90’s is certainly possible.

Here is the Hourly View, so give it a Click for Levels of Reference.

Post-Time is 00:20 GMT.

 

 

 

 

 

The Pound Yen also adheres nicely to Its Larger Longer-Term Channel from February… as a “Textbook” Retracement has been underway with Yen Strength.

Maintenance at the 155.00/155.50’s Support Areas is Crucial for Bullish Sentiment to remain In Favor… as Price looks towards the a “Surge and Hold” above the 160.50’s Static Resistance Level.

 

 

 

 

 

The Fiber has also seen Gains against The Dollar…despite the early Dollar Strength yesterday leading into and out of the Interest Rate Decisions. We still encounter macro-Consolidation on the IntraDay Level as Price is “Anchored” by the 1.4140’s Static Support and the 1.4240’s Dynamic Resistance… with the Larger Range being 1.4070 through 1.4340.

We will definitely move around in these Horizontal Ranges… so Continued Volatility is to be expected when we “Elevator” Up and Down with Consistency.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Let’s see how Muted our Price Action becomes the closer we move to NFP…and in the Interim… Please join me, as always, for the 7:00 GMT “Currency Techs” Report as well as another Blog Update to follow!

I look forward to seeing all of You then!

;-)

 

 

 

 

Tags: Continuing Claims, employment, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, ISM, jobs, Moderation, Non-Farm Payroll, payroll, USD/JPY

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