Greetings again, Everyone and A Fine Sunday to You!

Writing-Time for me is 9 A.M., so it is 16:00 GMT.

With some Thoughts still floating around in my Noodle about the “Macro-State” of Things… I reluctantly raise the Subject of Economics.

Of Course… a Disclaimer is Mandatory.

I am not an Economist… I am a Trader.

I consider my self rather Apolitical… as my larger concerns tend to rest with the State of Contemporary Art than with the State of the Union… the State of the local Opera rather than the State of changes in Economic Theory.

So Here Goes!…         

In our current Climate of Quantitative Easing and the largest “Printing Press” known in Existence… we need to realize the beginnings of the current Crisis in “Sentiment” began with the Dot-Bomb Collapse in 1999-2000 or so… when they exorbitant Funding and “Free-For-All” Exuberance was in full swing.

How else can we justify “Abstract Artificial” Venture Capital Funding for an Internet Company that did not even exist… much less the IPO-Mania that followed it on “Launch Day”?…

We move forward throughout the first half of the Decade with most of that Exuberance still lingering in the Motivations and Supply and Demand habits never really wavering.

The Stimulus Packages, Bailouts, Incessant Policy Changes, etc. leave me with a clear Conclusion that can be drawn from these “Deep Over-Corrections” of all of this is realized as we look into the Near-Term Future.

Inevitably… Interest rates and Inflation will gradually come back into The Equation, as these two Elements begin to creep higher as “The Recovery” continues.

The real issue, in my personal View, is what do we do, then, with the massive Quantitative Easing  which literally quadruples our National Debt  with just the “Shopaholic Spending Spree” of January and February?

We may handle the situation with Higher Interest Rates alleviating some of the Fallout… or simply raise Taxes across the board… neither sit well if done in a rapid Fashion, as The Treasury will have to sell Bonds at a reasonable Rate to capitalize all of this.

So we have The Path of Interest Rates or The Path of Taxes… both if which are “Behind The Curve”, so to speak, deep Unemployment is not stabilizing fast enough to cover this aspect of The Gap.

In this sense… The Cure of massive Q.E. and Massive ongoing Deficit are surely Worse that the Exuberance of The Disease.

Higher Across-The-Board Taxes and Higher looming Interest Rates on the Horizon may just see us back where we started…

Another Recession.

DISCLAIMER:

The above Thoughts are in no way indicative of a Wharton-Trained Economist… but indicative of Divergent-Thinking Trader whom you may think is crazy.

This is acceptable… as it certainly will not be the first time.

Hee hee hee…    

See all of You later for The Sydney Open to begin our New Week of Trading!

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