Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to a New Week!

I come to you today with heartfelt Appreciation for all of the months of support on The Blog, as , regrettably, I have decided to discontinue my communications in this manner with keeping The Blog active here on FXstreet.

My own personal Work has been leading in other directions for quite some time, and we all know there are only a finite number of hours in the day!

I would like to express my deep and sincere thanks to FXstreet’s Founder and CEO, Francesc Riverola, as well as my dear friends of his Staff, Noemi Jansana, Marina Schiaffino, Maud Gilson, and everyone within the FXstreet Family… as they really have become like “Family” to me!

Being around FXstreet literally daily since late 2004/early 2005 has garnered me a wealth of knowledge and friendships that are simply too numerous to describe. I have seen and experienced so many changes and expanding growth of the experiences and quality of Content at FXstreet, and I am deeply grateful to have been a witness to all of it over the years.

We all grow and change and it is simply a natural part of our Trading, as well as personal lives.

It would certainly be my honor to stay in touch with all of you, and I may be reached at “ultramaxgroup at yahoo.com”, so please feel free to drop a line!

Trading is inherently a solitary experience as we all know, so it would be great to have contact with all my friends and colleagues from over the years!

On more of a local Note, for those of you heading to The Forex and Options Expo in Las Vegas next week on August 2nd through the 4th, be sure to look around for me… as I will be in attendance just like every year!

I should not be too hard to find… all of you have seen my Mugshot picture!   

Thanks Again, Everyone… and I will drop by Premium for Webinars and Sessions when time permits.

It was a privilege for me to share my Market Thoughts and Ideas with you each day, and hopefully I brought a little humor along the way with my Analogies and “The CVJ Fan Club Guys” as well!

Take Care, Be Vigilant with your Trading, and I hope to see Everyone again in the future!

Sincerely,

Tim Salem (CVJ)

Greetings again, Everyone!

The positive importance of The U.K. Retails Sales Data is showing “slight” sign of Stabilization as Actuals of a 1.3% rise clipped the 0.3% Consensus with ease. While this translated into a nice Break of The Queen and Her Major Cross into Appreciation… we would really need to see stronger and stronger Purchasing “Evidence” coming out of the U.K. Consumer over a several-month period to really see Retail Sales as a Bellwether of positive Sentiment and Growth.

Let’s check in briefly with The GBP/USD and The GBP/JPY, and here are our same Hourly Views.

Give The Captures a Click, and Post-Time is 10:45 GMT.

 The Magenta Dynamic Support Line did, in fact, Hold for us and become a “new” Transitive Rollover Area of Static Support. Price now clips the 1.6510 Resistance Area, and if we do not see an Impulsive Correction back to the 1.6440’s Levels, then the 1.6600 Handle is on the way via 1.6555 Dynamic Resistance.

A Correction at 1.6600 then has a rather High-Probability of occurring, as Static Resistance at this Level is solid.

The Pound Yen show similar Price Action that is even more “extended” on the IntraDay View as we see a “potential” Double-Top Behavior if Price can fall on the Yen Strength, and bring the Corrective Sentiment further along. Solid Confluence is seen here with the Transitive Rollover Support Area and the Weekly 38.2% Fib Variant that we have held for months now.

The Daily Lower Channel Line may hinder this, and act as Dynamic Support… in the same fashion it acted as Dynamic Resistance over the last two Days of Hourly Candles.

While both of these Units are Overbought on the Hourly Views… taking a “Clue” from the U.S. Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales Data will be relevant as we see to what “Degree” The Dollar is affected in a couple of hours!

Be sure and check back in for more Updates to follow, so I hope to see All of you soon!

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Thursday!

We look a bit ahead today and tomorrow with some significant Data Point Releases that may give The Queen some Impetus to really break it’s larger Time-Cycle Areas of Consolidation.

Retail Sales out of The U.K. brings the spotlight to The Queen, as Consensus calls for a slight Build in Retail Sales… despite the very fragile British Consumer Sentiment Outlook.

(For additional Information on this Data Point, please have a look at “Retail Sales” , among my other Releases, in the new “Fundamental Forex Foundations” Section).

Preliminary GDP is to follow on Friday, which is also looking for a Positive Build… however so slightly it may be… and we will get to this Release in a later Post.

Even with the relatively “Positive” Sentiment out of The MPC, we are still working a 6-Week Range on The Daily View… with Static Support at the 1.6000 Handle and Resistance at the 1.6600 Handle.

I also have a “Mid-Term Dynamic Range” here that will give us a bit more Clarity with Dynamic Support at 1.62000 and Dynamic Resistance at  about 1.6665… although we can still see a rather “Clean” Range of Behavior here.

Give The Captures a Click as always, and Post-Time is 2:00 GMT.

The Hourly View for all of my IntraDay Friends provides a bit more Short-Term Probability with a decent 150-Pip Range to the Downside, and a Dynamic Support Area with 1.6440 Magenta Trendline of the Daily Dynamic Channel to “Bounce” off of if the Area holds for Price Appreciation.

It will be interesting to see if the “slightly positive” Consensus of Retail Sales will actually move the Unit into one of these two “Scenarios”… or if we may simply get a purely Technical Move to simply get out of The larger Range Itself.

Just like The Queen Herself… Price can also be a bit “Impatient”, can’t it!       

We will check back with plenty of more Updates, so please feel free to join me!

Greetings again, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

Well… I think for the first time in the history of The Blog… I really do not have a lot to say!

OK OK… All of you can stop cheering now!… hee hee hee…   

Seriously… the continual Summer “Directionless” Sentiment out on the Larger Time-Cycles are certainly a sign of the Lower Summer Volumes… despite the increased Volatility and “Angular Noisy” Market Behavior.

Of course from The Hill with Bernanke, all The “Fed-Speak” was certainly out on the table for all of us to hear… as Economic Indicators and Data Point Releases get “Lost in Translation” for the Layman listener or viewer on T.V.

Housing and Consumer Sentiment are the “Name of The Game” here, as always, in any type of Economic stabilization and Recovery… so on it goes!

As we move into The Asian-Pacific Sectors, let’s take a look at The USD/JPY Unit as The Nikkei, The Aussie Markets, The Kospi, Hang Seng, etc… get moving along with their Morning.

The Unit could be the Classic Symbol of a Directionless Market!

Post-Time is 23:00 GMT.

On the Daily View, we are locked in a tight Range of about 91.70’s Static Support to the Transitive Rollover Area of Resistance at the 94.80’s. Our Long-Term Downtrend Channel from April is still very valid in “Anchoring” Price and current Momentum is leaning to more Depreciation of the Unit with Yen Strength.

The Hourly provides a little more Clarity as a Horizontal Range is in place. Price looks to Breach the Downside Dynamic Support Line first with a move towards the 93.20’s Support Area in the Immediate-Term… as Risk Aversion gradually comes back to The Markets.

We will see how Price progresses, so please join me for the “Big Blog” Post for Thursday in a few hours!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We have had some time to “digest” a significant portion of Bernanke’s Testimony on The Hill, as well as today’ EIA Crude Inventory Builds and we see our Crude/Equities/Euro Correlations functioning well from an IntraDay View.

While in the “Trasditional” sense, The Fiber’s Correlation with Gold is always significant… we often see Oil playing a solid Role here as well due primarily to the Euro moving “loosely but generally” In Tandem with the NYMEX WTI Continuous Contract ( The West Texas Intermediate Futures).

The Rationale behind this is rather extensive to get into, but for the sake of my point… we can use the Classic “Inversion” of Strong Oil and Gold equalling A Weak Dollar… since both Commodities are bought and sold in Dollars.

This translates for us with a Rising EUR/USD correlating very highly with a Rising Oil Price… since both are seeing a Weakening Dollar.

Relative Performance so far today with The Dollar sees Crude off about 0.30 %, while the Euro is up about 0.10%.

OK… all of you know me very well by now and if I do not stop… I will start going into my “CVJ’s Bag of Analogies”, and ramble for days…so let’s move on to The Captures!   

Here we have The Hourly Views of both Units, where we can see how tightly Price is correlating on the IntraDay Basis… literally right down to The Wicks and “Directionality” of Support and Resistance Levels.

Give The Captures a Click, as always… and Post-Time is 18:30 GMT.

Of course… time for one of my “Rhetorical” Questions!

“Is this a Euro and Crude Move here?… or are we seeing The Dollar driving these two Ships…”

I have my Views… but what are yours?… Please feel free to Comment, as always!

As always, more Updates to come… so please join me after The NYSE Close, and we can check on those larger Equity and Index Correlations as well!

Greetings again, Everyone!

We arrive about 75 Minutes into The NYSE Open where the Dow and S&P Indices are varying from largely “Flat” to a bit of early Gains. Bernanke’s continued Testimony today will continue to play a large part in Equity sentiment today, as will the continued Roll-Outs during Earnings Season.

Our Thought on the MPC Minutes out of The Bank of England came to fruition as both Dynamic and Static Support Levels were hit, and Price Appreciation immediately cam back in to secure the same Levels once again.

Here are The Captures of both for a quick Reference, so give them a Click… and Post-Time is 14:45 GMT.

The Queen met and surpassed Lower static Support at the 1.6330’s where Price Appreciation on Prime Minister Brown’s and The BoE’s Rhetoric for a more “positive outlook” on The U.K. Economy provided the Impetus here. Our thoughts on the “decreasing likelihood” of additional Quantitative Easing gave he Pound a boost here… as even several hours later…we still “Anchor” at the 1.6380’s/1.6400 Supportive Areas.

As in our Pre-MPC Post last evening… The Pound Yen is literally taking The Queen’s lead here with a step of Depreciation to the lower 152.30’s Static Support back to the 153.20’s and finding “Safe Harbor” there for now.

In turning to The Euro… in my personal View the most “Directionless” Unit around… a “Catalyst” is surely needed to move Price out of Its Accumulating and Consolidating nature… ( of course, my thought here will be dependent on the Time-Cycles you prefer to work on…)

We still do have a “loose” Correlation of Sentiment with U.S. Equities and Gold and Oil… although the relatively “Flat” Hourly Descending Channel give us extensive Wicks of indecision to work with.

The Month-over-Month Housing Price Index comes in above Consensus, although the weak Year-over-Year Numbers largely negate this… so no real surprises there.

We now see one of my personal favorite Data Point Releases, as most of you know, The EIA Oil Inventory Builds… and those Numbers come in with Inventories slightly down while Gasoline and Distillate Builds are slightly higher than Consensus… and we see no real Market Reaction here concerning The Dollar.

All Eyes are now on Uncle Ben as we move along!…so more Updates to follow as usual!

I would like to point out something I have been aware of for quite a while through my good friend and FXstreet’s Chief Analyst, Valeria Bednarik, and her Work along with Alberto Munoz and Tatsuya Kawanishi of the FXstreet Content Team, on the new revamped FXstreet Tools Section and Area!

Having been around these woods here on FXstreet since early 2005… I have seen many deep improvements and changes come and go to the Content of the whole Site, and this is one of the most exciting!

To have these Tools revised and more effective in their Application will surely benefit all who use them!

Here is The Link so give them a Try!

http://www.fxstreet.com/forex-tools/

Greetings Everyone, and Welcome to Wednesday!

We prepare for the Bank of England Minutes to be released, as we look for any additional signs of increased Stimulus since they failed to do their “Allocated Increase” of 25B Sterling in additional Asset Purchases.

The Markets will be especially watchful for any Rhetoric or Indications of a “Timeline” of if and when this will occur…as well as the “possibility” of additional Policy since the BoE does have their “Eye on the Inflationary Ball” with its very sensitive Economy of late.

In addition, we will certainly watch the EIA Crude Inventory Builds Data Release as well… since Crude has been an interesting “Leading Indicator” of sorts… at lease concerning Sentiment in the last few weeks.

Let’s have a look at The Queen again… as well as GBP/JPY… where we already notice a literal “Grinding Halt” to Price Action on both Units ahead of The Minutes.

Here is The Hourly… where our Levels are basically unchanged from our earlier Update… as Price looks to hold the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support Area in the Immediate-Term.

Give The Capture a Click, and Post-Time is 2:45 GMT.

Pound Yen is seeing very similar Price action as well… as Price looks to hold the 153.20’s/00 Handle in the Immediate-Term. We are already seeing continuation of the Yen Strength, as the Unit is off about 66 Pips or so for the Day already in “relative” terms.

A Breach of the Area will see the 152.30’s with ease for another “Re-Test” to form an Hourly Double-Bottom in the Near-Term if the Area holds.

We will surely check in with these Developments as we progress, so please stop back by frequently for more Updates… as I always look forward to all of your Visits!

Greetings again, Everyone at The NYSE Close!

Sectors, The Indices, and overall Market “Sentiment” are all in positive Territory primarily on the back of continued Positive Earnings across many Sectors.

While we arrive at a 7-Day Positive Rally… I will bring up a Term all of you have heard me mention several times in the past few months.

“Bear Market Rally”.

Are we really seeing a semblance of overall Health here?… or are we simply seeing some Over-Extension and Over-Bought Conditions?

I would lean towards the Latter in my personal View. 

We certainly can see the S&P approaching the 960 Area, but in the “Case of The Correction”, as I like to say… the Extended Price Action truly may see a Immediate-Term Top there prime for a Reversal… hence a nice Daily Double-Top will then be in Formation.

This will obviously translate over to The Dow as well… despite the “Positive Earnings’ Sentiment.

Here is a quick View of The Daily S&P 500 to check on these Levels once again.

Post-Time is 20:50 GMT.

In looking at my “Real-Time” Currency Correlations, we can see some Disparity today with the poor Queen being the significant Driver of Depreciation… in Her Major and in The Crosses.

 While as of this exact moment, Price is beginning to stage Bullish Build from the previous “Re-Test” of the 1.6380’s Transitive Rollover Support… Price is still off about 90 Pips, and about 160 with the GBP/JPY Cross.

In contrast, EUR/GBP is holding on to its 40+ Pip Gain for the Day.

Here is the Hourly View of The Queen, so give it a Click for various Levels.

Price needs to Clip and regain the 1.6500 Handle here for the development of a “new” Transitive Rollover Area, and our IntraDay Trendline here will provide some Dynamic Support moving forward.

If we see Failure, and Price breaches the actual Lower Channel Daily Trendline here as well… then the 1.6200 Handle and beyond is certainly In View.

Now we move onto the Asian Sectors soon, where the Positive Sentiment will usually be picked up by the Nikkei and The Aussie Exchanges for our initial Indication of Continuation.

Please join me soon for tomorrow’s “Big Blog” Post as we also check in with how The Asian Sectors are progressing!

I hope to see you then!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

The IntraDay Market Corrections we have spoken of have surely come to Fruition, as The Dollar and The Yen strengthen on overall Market Sentiments.

The Dow and The S&P are largely “flat” coming into additional Bernanke Testimony, as we are, once again, dealing with Ranging and somewhat “Directionless’ Market activity moving forward.

We can see with The current EUR/USD Activity that even though we have plenty of IntraDay Volatility and Macro-Factors to use as Impetus for Movement… We really are still dealing with these “larger” Consolidations of Activity out on the larger Time-Cycles.

 Here is The Capture, so give it a Click for this Range we are speaking of, as price currently sits on the 1.4080’s Dynamic Support Areas. Continued Clearance here to the Downside may certainly see a “Re-Test” of the 1.3800 Handle of Mid-Term Support.

Give the Captures a Click, as always, and Post-Time is 17:15 GMT.

The Hourly View sees clear Delineation of the Price Appreciation, as we reverse with probable Profit-Taking and Equities Correlation weakness as we move forward.

A Clip of this Dynamic Support can certainly see the 1.4080’s “In Concert” with the overall Daily View.

As Bernanke continues on, we will monitor any additional Rhetoric moving forward and I will have an Update for you as we move towards the NYSE Close!

Please stop by for a visit then!

Greetings once again, Everyone!

As expected, The Bank of Canada held Rates at 0.25% in which the future Forecast to keep this Level through the middle of 2010 is a somewhat surprising consideration in terms of looking that “Far into The Future” for a Central Bank Entity.

We are quite accustomed in our present Climate to see Policy Views and Shifts simply going from Meeting to Meeting…although Canada’s emphasis on maintaining its 2% Target Inflation Rate is “In Line” with this type of rhetoric.

Our Thoughts on the concern of the Canadian Dollar strength were emphasized as expected,  as The Statement shed light on “The higher Canadian Dollar significantly moderating the pace of overall growth”.

Crude Oil certainly took advantage of this Momentum in its Correlation with The Loonie, while certainly having its own Appreciation lately due to positive Equities Correlations moving forward.

Let’s check in with both Units and observe the Price Appreciation, so give The Captures a Click for reference.

Post-Time is about 30 Minutes after The NYSE Open at 14:00 GMT… where The Dow is bidding up in positive territory a bit over 44 Points.

Here I have the new September Futures Crude Contract, which again, will vary slightly with the Continuous Contract on The NYMEX… where we see an IntraDay High so far of about $66.65 and a new “Transitive Rollover” Area right at the $66.00 Handle.

A deeper Correction… which is probable in my personal View…may simply take us back into the Consolidating Range of $64.20’s to the $66.00 Handle with the Conclusion of Bernanke’s Testimony here.

His emphasis will place Rhetoric on Macro-Economic Growth remaining in Contraction Mode which will give the Dollar and Yen a little boost of “Corrective Steam”, if you will.

The Strength of The Loonie here reaching the 1.0960’s but not being able to sustain the Level as Price moves back to the massive 1.1000 Handle… is precisely the Sentiment the BoC is after.

Corrections may also be due here with the Bernanke Testimony Rhetoric, as well as the Crude and even Gold Corrective Sentiment that looks to be on the way… although a Retracement of this “Wick” surely is possible through to the 1.0930’s Dynamic Support Areas as well.

As always on such an interesting Day, I will have more Updates for you as we move along!

The Curiosity of the potential Dollar and Yen Corrections against the backdrop of strong Equity Earnings will be a unique InterPlay to see concerning general Correlations between all of these Units!

Please join me soon!